The Association

Debunking the Stat Guys = More Wins Theory

By Craig Kwasniewski

NBA stat guys are dancing in the streets, running up to random store fronts screaming, "You like apples???", and tweeting to their hearts content. Today is your day fellas. Finally some recognition. Finally the hard work and highly uncomfortable worship of Darly Morey has paid off! Mainstream media has championed your cause.

According to today's Wall Street Journal:

Wall Street Journal found that half the league's teams this season have at least one of these statisticians who helps make in-game, draft-day and trade-deadline decisions. Many of these teams are among the NBA's best. The list accounts for all six division leaders, including the Orlando Magic and Dallas Mavericks, who have a data analyst traveling with the team. These 15 teams that have invested heavily in statistics have combined to win 59.3% of their games this season.

There you go, money spent on statisticians equals a 59.3% winning percentage.  The numbers don't lie... but they kinda of do.

Like most stats, the numbers convey a specific certain type of data and don't really show the big picture.  Fellas, it's just not that simple as more stat guys = more wins. 

The big picture is more money invested in you team = more wins.  It's not just better statistical analysis, it's better practice facilities, better training staffs, better transportation, better personnel management, etc.  It's the teams willing to spend the extra dollar to squeeze out any kind of advantage outside and beyond the limits of the salary cap.  It's no surprise that the Mavericks are on that list of teams with data analysts.  Mark Cuban is the perfect example of an owner smartly investing in his team to gain an advantage and it shows (they've been in the playoffs every year since 2000-01).

Conversely, one of the teams not on that list, the Phoenix Suns, are notoriously cheap.  Their owner has been looking for ways to slash salary the second he pushed Jerry Colangelo out the door.  Robert Sarver flies coach for crissake!  With their owner giving Donald T. Sterling a run at cheapness, the recent fall from title contender to playoff hopefuls comes as no real surprise.

For what it's worth, I do think stat guys are a helpful aid and very necessary in today's game.  They allow us to see the game in a completely different light and prove that the NBA is evolving into the technological age.  I just don't think they are the clear cut difference maker as everyone is making it (especially after seeing 'he "results" in today's WSJ).

 

Thoughts On a Crazy Day/Night of Trading

By Craig Kwasniewski 

Can we replace the dunk contest with a live feed into the board rooms of the 30 GM's at trading deadline? Seriously, how much more entertaining would it be to see a desparate Donnie Walsh nervously work his poker face with Daryl Morey, who holds all the Mac's I mean cards.

Anyway, trading deadline is still hours away yet the last 24-hours have been very crazy as several title contenders and not-even-pretenders hoped to improve their chances at dethroning the Lakers. Here are my thoughts on the recent trades (including the crazy T-Mac to Sacramento??? trade that happened in the early hours, which by the way interrupted my Olympic Curling viewing in HD.): 

The Cleveland Cavaliers acquire Antawn Jamison. In a three team deal Jamison and Sebastian Telfair go to Cleveland; Zydrunas Ilgauskas, the Cavs 2010 first-round draft pick, the rights to Emir Preldzic and Al Thornton go to Washington; and Drew Gooden goes to the Clippers. 

First thoughts? Whew! The Cavs could have had a younger more athletic Amar'e Stoudemire filling the lane and reigning terror a-la Shawn Kemp from 1992 to 1997. They could have gotten bigger, younger and more athletic and completely whiffed because they didn't want to part with JJ Hickson?!?  Whew!  LeBron would have been hoisting a trophy for the next FIVE years.... WHEW!

Lemme get this straight, the Cavs have been rolling over every opponent (including the defending champs) with size and defense so they trade size and defense away for smaller and offense (who's also a little long in the tooth at 33 years old). I attended the Lakers-Cavs game on Xmas Day and the Lakers had no answer when Mike Brown put both Shaq and Ilgauskas on the floor at the same time. Gasol and Bynum never had to face a frontline bigger and stronger than them and they backed off as Cleveland blew out the Lakers.  Weeks later the same thing happened in Cleveland as the Cavs size especially threw Gasol off his game. 

How is a smaller mid-range guy with no defensive skills going to help? He's only made it out of the first round once in the playoffs, he struggled when on a contending team (2003-04 Dallas Mavericks) and he can't play a lick of defense. I can't stress this enough, Mike Brown made his bones as a defensive coach, he's quite possibly the least creative offensive coach in the history of the NBA yet he's still LeBron's coach because he calls a hell of a defensie game. How is a guy who played his entire career on offense-first ZERO-defense teams going to blend with the Cavs? Yeah maybe he'll be a 20 and 8 guy every night, but everyone who plays with LeBron is capable of that. Why? Because freakin' LeBron James is there and he'll create more easy baskets than you can imagine. But really, offensive stats aside the Cavs got worse in this deal on the most important end of their floor: defense and size. 

BTW - oh and what about Shaq? Is he capable of splitting Z's minutes with Varajao? Does he have the energy to play out the season with the extra minutes? He's no longer with the chemical brothers (Phoenix's training staff) to help squeeze every last bit of energy out of him. I'm real curious to see how the Cavs front line reacts on the floor now that Z is gone. 

The Clippers found a way to dump salary and are expected to buy out Gooden right away, leaving them a major player in the summer... well except that their owner hates black people, which may chase away like every single free agent.

The Wizards... I haven't seen a team blown up this fast since the Lakers in the summer of 2004 when they traded away Shaq, Rick Fox and Gary Payton and let Karl Malone, Derek Fisher and Phil Jackson go. I feel for ya D.C.!  I'm just curious how Ernie Grunfeld still has a job.  

The Rockets send Tracy McGrady to Sacramento for Kevin Martin.  The full deal has the Rockets sending McGrady, Carl Landry and Joey Dorsey to the Kings for Martin, Sergio Rodriguez, Hilton Armstrong and Kenny Thomas. 

Okay this trade went down late last night and completely took me by surprise.  All week we were hearing T-Mac to the Knicks is imminent, it's happening, the Knicks will be serious players this summer now that they can shed T-Mac's huge expiring contract.... (insert crashing car noise here)... BAM!

Daryl Morey got tired of negotiating over draft protections with Donnie Walsh and found a better deal in Sacto.  When healthy Kevin Martin is a very good shooting guard that knows how to get to the freethrow line.  (He once scored 20 points while going 1 of 8 from the field!)  It doesn't hurt to have a guy who can get to the freethow line anytime, especially in the postseason.

But what DOES hurt is that he's injury-prone (he missed 84 games the past three seasons) and of any team in the NBA, the Rockets are the last franchise that needs yet another injury-prone player.  But given a choice between the stink that the Knicks were offering and this deal, it's safe to say Morey came out ahead... and Donnie Walsh is left staring at his phone hoping someone, anyone will take Jared Jeffries contract.  I'm starting to understand why the blogosphere loves Morey.  

The Kings get a hockey player trapped in the body of an NBA player, Carl Landry.  I love pairing him up with Nocioni, a pair of balls-out grinders who don't give a damn about stats.  Good guys to have on your team. Oh and they get massive cap relief in T-Mac's expiring contract.  The downside is that they lose Martin, but he wasn't working out well with Tyreke so something had to be done and this deal ain't all that bad for Sacto.

Will they give T-Mac some minutes to prove that he's worthy of a contract this summer... who knows?

The biggest question of all: did Ainge acquire the Dallas Cowboys Cheerleaders in the deal? 

Celtics trade Eddie House to the Knicks for Nate Robinson.  The Celtics need to throw in another player to complete the deal, possibly J.R. Giddens. As of last night this was a done deal.

Like Cleveland, the Celtics needed size and defense.  So they go out and grab 5'-9" Nate Robinson for instant offense off the bench.  Yeah I get it that the C's go though these excruciatingly long scoring droughts late in games and Robinson seems to be the right type of energy off the bench.  HOWEVER... does this deal make a difference against the Lakers, Magic or Cavs?  The C's need more big bodies to deal with those three teams.  But maybe the worry is more about getting a top three seed than actually competing for a title.

The Knicks... they're reeling bigtime after failing to get T-Mac.  D'Antoni supposedly wanted Eddie House, so there you go Mike.  Enjoy getting a decent three point shooter who talks serious smack while the Knicks lose 65 games and lose any chance of getting LeBron, Wade, Bosh or Joe Johnson because of the failed T-Mac deal. 

As a Lakers fan, the two deals by Cleveland and Boston don't worry me at all.  Both teams got smaller and worse on defense.  But most importantly of all, A'mare does not go to Cleveland where he would have been a monster for the next 5 to 6 years.  WHEW!

A Very Quick Prediction on the HOU-LA Series

By Craig Kwasniewski

Just 30 minutes left before I drive on out to Staples Center so let me get a very brief prediction on the Lakers-Rockets series:

Lakers win in 6... but it won't be easy... here's why:

-The Rockets defense will focus on shutting down Kobe with mixed coverage from Artest, Battier and probably a rotating guard giving D-Fish wide open jumpers... but since he officially expired on 04/01/09 and that Farmar's confidence is at UCLA football level... the Rockets will get away with rotating away from the Lakers 1-spot.

-Bynum/Gasol versus Yao/Scola in the front court is a wash.  Scola's activity will confound the Lakers, who were exposed by Utah as weak on the defensive boards but Bynum's quickness will affect Yao in the post.  Yao ain't facing the sluggish Blazers tandem of Oden-Pryzbilla this round.

-The Lakers will struggle early in the series.  The Lakers will come off very rusty in Game 1but they'll eek out a W tonight.  But they'll come in overconfident and lose Game 2 followed by a million "the playoff don;t start until the home team loses" cliches.

-The Rockets have the depth and hustle necessary to give the Lakers trouble but they don't have the offensive firepower.  The only way they stand a chance is by slowing down the pace and making it a Jeff Van Gundy-type of series with the final scores in the 80's.

-This whole series comes down to one player:

LAMAR ODOM

The Rockets can defend Kobe with a Artest/Battie platoon but they don't have a player capaable of defending BOTH Kobe and LO.  If Odom plays like he did against Utah, I can't see the Rockets stopping him.  He's too long, agile, quick and smart enough for the Rockets to defend without letting Kobe get off.

Monday Morning Point Guard

By Craig Kwasniewski 

March Madness eat your heart out! One weekend down and there were several upsets, a few stinkers and a couple expected results. As much as I love the whole one and done March Madness thing, you don't get the physical play, the adjustments and strategy that a 7-game series offers. Here are a few thoughts with one game down in each series: 

Boston vs. Chicago - Is there room on the Derrick Rose bandwagon? The Bulls were the one team I regret not seeing in person this year. Anyone with an eye for hoops can appreciate the full range this rookie brings to the Bulls but what I didn't notice until Saturday is Rose's quick and explosive LAST step. Most players have that quick first step to blow by defenders but Rose explodes right at the rim at his last step. Also, his extremely calm nature works well with the youthful Bulls. Game 1 against the defending champs and he has the heart rate of a librarian and it's contagious as the Bulls weren't phased at all. I still think Boston wins, but the Bulls should make Rose the GM, coach and owner and build around him for the next 12 years. 

Cleveland vs. Detroit - Are we done yet? Are we done yet? Are we done yet? SWEEP! 

San Antonio vs. Dallas - One quarter in, Duncan had springy legs and looked very 2007, I was on the brink of writing a "Mavs should have kept Maquis Daniels instead of Josh Howard" piece and Nowitzki was in foul trouble... basically it didn't look good for Dallas. I left home, went out thinking the Spurs would win easily and I caught the last few seconds at a bar as Dallas... PULLED AWAY FOR A W??? What the hell happened? Suddenly Dallas looks like a very legit Western Conference finalist and San Antonio looks old.    

Portland vs. Houston - This really looks like a match-up problem for Portland more than anything else. Maybe their inexperience cost them a W as they didn't have that fifth gear or maybe they're just happy to be there.  All I know is Yao played the best playoff game of his life and showed EVERYONE that the problem was always T-MAC. 

Los Angeles vs. Utah - No Okur, no chance for Utah... it's just that simple. But the real story is the referees killing the entire second half of the game. It's no surprise that Joey Crawford was the lead ref in the worst called game of the weekend. Does the NBA pay him by the fouls? Does he really think the fans pay to see him ref? Is he out to single-handedly ruin professional hoops?  There were SIXTEEN fouls in the 3rd quarter alone and a free-flowing game became a possession-by-possession freethrow festival. Terrible! 

Orlando vs. Philadelphia - I've said this all year, Orlando doesn't have the go to guy necessary to make a deep run in the playoffs. C-Webb pretty much blew a gasket ripping on the Magic not riding Dwight Howard all game. But does Superman really want to be "that guy" with the Magic or is he content with monster numbers, monster dunks and showmanship? NBA Champions all have the definitive alpha dog and an understood chain of command. The Celtics heart lies with KG but crunchtime went Pierce first and Sugar Ray second. The early 00's Lakers had Shaq for 3 1/2 quarters with Kobe as the closer... what about Orlando? 

Atlanta vs. Miami - The Hawks put together a Special Edition Double-DVD set of highlights on the Heat on Sunday. Instead of 2006 Kobe and the Lakers with their near upset of the #2 seeded Phoenix Suns, the Heat resembled the 2007 edition and the very one-sided 4-1 loss to Phoenix. But we'll see what kind of road playoff team Atlanta is in games 3 & 4. 

Denver vs. New Orleans - Denver put together a sick 21-0 run late in the 3rd early in the 4th to put away what was a close and very physical game. Chauncey Billups went retro looking like a 2005 version going 8 of 9 from three on his way to 36 points. NOLA basically gave up at the end of the 3rd quarter so this blowout doesn't really mean the Nuggets will sweep. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if NOLA steals game 2. This really feels like a very bitter and very physical seven game series.

Shane Battie and his 1,300 Statistical Categories Still Equal a Loss

By Craig Kwasniewski 

The Rockets lost to the Lakers 93-81 last night despite Shane Battier's quintuple-double with 11 tips, 15 deflections, 10 block outs, 17 run downs, 13 crash outs, 19 keepers, 16 blow byes, 18 lock downs, 13 close ins, 14 points and 27 blocked rebounds... and every other stat that the Houston Rockets front office uses to justify having a player with limited offensive skills, limited athleticism, who works hard on both ends of the floor and has above average defensive ability. Do we need endless podcasts, magazine articles and web posts to point out the brilliance of the stats that Houston uses for Battier? Do we really need to quantify all the "little things" that Battier does? Hey what ever happened to quantifying the big things? What ever happened to the big picture, like wins or losses? 

Here's a clue: the job of each and every NBA GM is to keep his job. So OF COURSE they need to create stats all to justify their actions good or bad... but it's not brilliance, it's just stats. And given that the Rockets have not advanced in the playoffs since 1997 well it's high time to create more stats for the likes of Yao Ming and Tracy McGrady, two players who have made a career of postseason incompetence. 

And hey guys, I majored as an engineer at Purdue University and I use mathematics on a daily basis so I'm pretty sure I can hold my own with all the statistical devotees. Here's a simple stat for Battie: 5 wins and 20 losses in the playoffs... Nuff said!

Monday Morning Point Guard

By Craig Kwasniewski

Just a few thoughts from the past weekend in the NBA... 

Losses by the Celtics and Lakers just add to the 1996 Bulls mystique: 

Brace yourself for this "brilliant" remark... winnin' 70 ain't easy. Seriously, can we finally stop with the 70-win predictions? Every single year by Christmas the media piles on some talented team that flies out of the gate, throwing out 70-win predictions as often as Nadia Sulaman squirts out a kid and every year that team du jour loses game number 13 by March. The NBA season is too long and players are simply not motivated enough (Lamar Odom I'm speaking to you!) to drive through a six month regular season to get to 70 wins. Back in 1996 I remember the media undercutting the Bulls achievements all season long: the league was watered down, the players are not as fundamentally sound, Jordan isn't facing a Bird or Magic. All may be true, but the Bulls were driven enough to avoid too many upset losses by clearly inferior teams (unlike the Celtics against the Clippers and as the Lakers in Sunday's loss to Phoenix). 

Anyway, here is my formula to winning 70: 

1 - You need a visionary coach. Someone like Gregg Popovich or Phil Jackson who coaches with the entire season in mind and not game-to-game. Basically you want to avoid the 1999 Minnesota Vikings and 2006 New England Patriots syndrome of having a record-setting regular season but no title. After all, as Shaq said, it's all about the globes. 

2 - You need SEVERAL driven players. This is why the Lakers aren't winning 70, because Kobe's competitive drive alone isn't enough to pull the Lakers through the entire season. Michael Jordan comes to mind as the only person capable, but it also helped that he had an almost equally driven teammate in Scottie Pippen. Pau Gasol and Lamar Odom (fresh off turtle-ing against KG and Kendrick Perkins in the Finals) aren't these type of guys. In fact, right after winning NBA Player of the Week, Gasol was talking about being fatigued and resting during games... which was obvious in the past two Lakers losses. You never heard that from Jordan or Pippen. 

3 - You need some luck. Injuries are a part of the game and KG and Andrew Bynum going down all but ended any chance at 70. Outside of Dennis Rodman's suspension for head-butting a referee, much of the Bulls key players were healthy the entire season. 

4 - The team needs a sense of history. This excludes the 1986 Celtics, who quite possibly could have gone for 70 wins except that it wasn't considered an achievement back then. The NBA in the 1980's was all about getting 50-wins and preparing for the playoffs. The 1986 Celtics were, in my mind, were the only team in the past 35-years with the best shot at 70, but it didn't matter.  

5 - Talent. OBVIOUSLY!!!  You can't even smell 70 without at least 2 or 3 All-Stars on your team (legit ones that command defensive double-teams and not political All-Star selections like David West because the NBA is keen on promoting Chris Paul). 

With all that in mind, people really need to truly understand and appreciate the 1996 Bulls achievement of 72-10 (and 69-13 the following season for that matter).  

BTW - Let me add that I too underestimated the challenge of 70-wins.  I took a look at this Lakers team and emailed anyone who would listen (which wasn't really anyone, but alas) that they are 70-win capable.  As always, I am an idiot!

Back to the rest of MMPG: 

Lamar Odom... buyer beware: Remember Lamar Odom plowing through Boston and Cleveland with dominant double-doubles? Remember Lamar Odom with 74 rebounds in 4 games? Well you also need to know 6, 5 and 4... those were his rebounds, assists and points before he fouled out in the Lakers loss to Phoenix on Sunday. Odom is a free agent this summer and will command interest from several teams. So fare thee be warned, this is his 10th season in the NBA, so one of my favorite phrases applies here: you are what you are. And with Odom, he's always been "that guy" with tremendous potential, yet VERY inconsistent. 

Starbury to the Celtics: God I hate this deal! As a Lakers fan, this does not bode well. Instead of matching the Celtics and grabbing up a much-needed big until Bynum returns, the Lakers traded to dump salary. Meanwhile, the Celtics improved a non-existent bench by grabbing Steph and Mikki Moore. Neither guy is going to lock down LeBron and at first I was like "big deal, they still won't pass Cleveland." But the more I think about it, Steph and Mikki are more about getting the top seed in the east and avoiding BOTH Cleveland and Orlando in the post-season. I see them both injecting confidence and pushing the C's to the top record in the NBA. 

Here's my question to Celtics fans: does having the league's biggest cancer on your team take anything away from the title or is it "just win baby?" 

Utah... For Real: Racked by injuries all season and barely holding on to the 8th spot, the Jazz are finally healthy and have run off 8-straight wins (including two impressive W's against Boston and LA). The Jazz have the talent, the depth and the coaching to put a real scare come playoff time. Plus they have that extra emotional motivation with the recent passing of owner Larry Miller. This team has the potential to put together the same type of run as in 2007 when they lost to San Antonio in Western Conference Finals. They sit 1.5 games out of 4th place in the west with 23 games left. Only 9 of those 23 are home, so the Jazz need to fix their road woes to make a move... and I think they will. 

Houston... NOT for Real: The Rockets are putting together a similar run as Utah but I really don't see them as a threat out West (despite Jeff Van Gundy's continued beliefs). First off, aren't we due for the annual Yao Ming injury? He's one game away from playing the most games since 2004-05. Unlike T-Mac, Yao actually gives a crap about his team and winning... it's just that his body can't keep up. Also, with T-Mac gone, who's going to shoulder the offensive load on the perimeter?  Ron Artest's perimiter game is inconsistent and they depend on a rookie (a very talented rookie, but a rookie none the less) at the point guard spot.  As always, I see Houston not getting past the first round in the playoffs.  

Rockets are an Insult to Previous "Big Three" Members

by Craig Kwasniewski

Rocket's Big Thee... a Big Letdown, a Big Disappointment, a Big Misnomer, a Big Mistake... Very Overrated!!!!!

All the hype and that's it? Seriously I'm supposed to believe that the Rockets are NBA Finals material? Let's deal with a more seriously problem: the Big Three label. Hey Larry Bird, Kevin McHale and Robert Parrish called, they want their nickname back. Even KG, Pierce and Ray Allen texted a follow up message: "Big Three my ass!"

At this point I'm wondering which Big Three is worse: Artest, T-Mac and Yao or Ford, GM and Chrysler? It's a tie but I'm slightly favoring the autos because of the government loans. After watching the Rockets get trounced by the Lakers from my seat in Section 316, here are a few facts:

-Houston's Big Three is as overrated as Zac Braff! Two of them have NEVER won a playoff series and the third is Ron Artest... Need I say any more?

-Houston is NOT a Finals contender! They're outside shooting is flawed, their PG's are not in the same league as Parker, CP3, D-Will, Kidd or Boom Dizzle and their low post game relies on Yao Ming (who spends half the time in the high post of Rick Adelman's Princeton-type offense, which worked for Bigs with limited post skills and decent jumpers like Brad Miller and Vlade Divac but is an atrocious fit for Yao). This team will win it's share of games but they're not as good as the Lakers, Celtics, Hornets or Jazz.

-The Rockets need some perimeter shooters. Aaron Brooks is their biggest perimeter threat and defenses will clog the lanes and collapse on Yao daring the Rockets to hit a jumpers until they can prove they have range. The Lakers adjusted their defense after the first quarter and played the passing lanes and collapsed in the key daring them to win from range... which they couldn't.

-And did I mention that the Lakers are pretty good? Clearly out of sync from an early season bye week, the Lakers turned the ball over early and often and fell in a deep who against Houston's not so Big Three. They were is preseason form with bad passes and little defensive effort (giving up 28 points in the first quarter and trailing 32-16 early in the second). But in came the bench and the likes of Trevor Ariza, Jordan Farmar and Andrew Bynum ratched up the D playing the passing lanes and dominating the defensive glass and dug themselves out of an early 16-point hole to take the lead at half. The defense and board work didn't stop as Houston were outscored 95-50 (95-50!!!! not outscored but DOMINATED) in the final 3 quarters.

So are the Lakers headed for 70 wins? Hardly, I've seen hot Novembers before only to collapse over a LONG regular season. But the Lakers are answering all the "early chemistry" issues that people predicted with resounding blow outs over quality opponents.

Over-rated (Clap, Clap, Clap-Clap-Clap)... Over-rated (Clap, Clap, Clap-Clap-Clap)...

5 Predictions for the 2008-09 Season

by Craig Kwasniewski

The Association Blog is up a ready to go for the 2008-09 season! I'm rested, I'm rejuvenated and I'm just about over Game 4...

So let's get this thing rolling with 5 predictions for the 2008-09 season (BTW - for those of you keeping score at home, I was an embarrassing 2 of 5 in my predictions last season):

1 - Houston slightly edges out Philadelphia as most overrated. The easy pick for most overrated team is Philly. Elton Brand coming off a serious injury joining a team with zero perimeter shooting and a point guard notorious for being a great player on a bad team but a below-average player on a good one. That's an easy first round exit!

Nope, Houston wins the award for most overrated team of the season. Fresh off another yet another first round exit, destroying along the way all the good memories of that winning streak (seriously what was it: 17, 23, 87? I really don't know. All I know is I TOLD YOU SO!!!!!) the Rockets bring in Ron Artest.

Size up the rings, roll out the parade and drop a banner! Forget that the current dynamic duo is injury prone and have never advanced beyond the first round IN THEIR ENTIRE CAREER. Forget that their head coach while a good regular season coach is notorious for getting a case of sphincter-itis beyond April. Forget that the point guard should be running along side Tha Professor at Rucker Park instead of lining up against CP3, Deron Williams, Tony Parker and Steve Nash. Oh and forget that your NBA title hopes fall on the shoulders of Ron Artest.

2 - The Boston Icon Curse is VERY real! No I'm not talking about the quality of women from Beantown. The new curse involves the sporting icons from Boston. SNAP!!! Tom Brady blows out his knee, then POP!!! goes the Papi's wrist (along with a very clutch .186 in the postseason)... So which "icon" on the Celtics gets it? Obviously to everyone not named Paul Pierce (who's STILL thinks he's an elite player, though he somehow forgot all those "elite" seasons before Garnett bailed his ass out), a KG injury would severely hamper any shot at a repeat. Look I'm not wishing any injuries on the Celtics, but still....

3 - San Antonio's every other streak ends. If the pattern held to form the Spurs would be NBA champs in 08-09. They won titles in 02-03, 04-05 and 06-07 impressively with mid-February runs after coasting though the first half of the season. Manu's hurt, they lack that "it" energy guy they seem to always find and their veterans are O-L-D. The Spurs are at their best with Duncan resting through All-Star break riding Manu's energy through the first half. Now they have to hope Duncan has a full 82 games in him this year. I can't see it happening. We're two years away from the phrase, "Tim Duncan's corpse."

4 - LeBron James will win the MVP! Hard to believe but with all the Chris Paul love LeBron James is officially under the radar. It's like the NBA media is strictly monogamous, they can only drool on one guy a year. Last season they "dated" LeBron, then Kobe and CP3 now they're in a fully committed relationship with Paul and have issued an MVP Save the Date for May. Did they not see King James in the Olympics? The guy seems prime and ready for a massive season (like Jordan in 1987). Remember, the Cavs came a few minutes shy of knocking of the Celtics literally weeks after retooling their roster? Now LeBron gets a full season with this roster and he looks prime to take the MVP.

5 - Lakers will beat the Cavs in the Finals. Cleveland has the right pieces and more importantly the Celtics lost two HUGE components in James Posey and PJ Brown from last season's title. LeBron will prevail in a hard-fought 7 game series over Boston to earn a place in the Finals.

The Lakers will struggle early on trying to fit Andrew Bynum into the same roster that won the Western Conference but things will start to turn around in December. They have the deepest team in the NBA, despite being crushed by Tom Thibodeau in the Finals (come-on we all know Doc did nothing) they still have one of the best coaches ever, they got a full preseason of Pau Gasol and oh and by the way, they still have the best closer in the NBA. Do they have that toughness necessary to win a title? Can they win with two 5's on the floor? Will Kobe hold up after a long and busy off season? Will Odom's and Bynum's contract situations be distracting? Will the Buss family hold together or will they unravel like is years past? This is LA, there's always drama and the Lakers seem to rise above it. Their depth will allow Kobe to rest up and get them through the annual rash of injures that come in early January. And they will win the 2008-09 NBA Title!

Adidas T-Mac - Playoff Edition

By Craig Kwasniewski

Maybe you guys should step back and give a kicks update. - Posted by: John R.

Well ask and you shall receive… allow me to introduce the 2008 Adidas T-Mac Playoff Edition kicks. And with the Rockets *CLEARLY* on their way to an NBA title, I’m screaming, “It's about damn time!!!”

Much like the previous playoff editions of the T-Mac’s, these are custom made for beach or poolside use in May. They are custom built for the type of game Tracy McGrady brings at that time of year: being relaxed on a beach somewhere with Corona in hand. And at $25 they’re a virtual steal… so get yourself a pair (here at adidas.com) and rock them T-Mac style and watch the playoffs on TV in May.

BTW - John, that was a very funny comment!

The Bizarro Association: Houston Rockets

By Giarc Iskweinsawk

Over the past few weeks the many truths posted here at The Association have been construed as "hating."
Well it's time to re-think and re-mix our perspective on all things NBA. Our new feature The Bizarro Association will do just that. Let's start with the hottest topic (and turns out, THE GREATEST TEAM EVER ASSEMBLED) the Houston Rockets:

Yao Ming: That Yao Ming... what a leader! I totally get why he gets the most votes for every All Star Game! If it wasn't for bad luck, I'd name him G.O.A.T. OBVIOSLY the US media is racist... can someone please explain to me why he hasn't won an MVP award yet? He's sooooo dedicated to his team! So he's never won a playoff series... BIG DEAL! Other MEGA-SUPER-DUPER STARS (like Tracy McGrady) have never won a playoff series! Yao's neat!

Shane Battier: Oh my gosh... oh my gosh... Shane Battier is super cool! EVERYONE in the world LOVES Duke basketball, right? How can you not love a team that has several television networks openly rooting for them (ESPN and CBS). How can you not love a team that gets every single call from every single referee in the NCAA tournament! And Battier... well he's Mr. All Everything! He's awesome!

Dikembe Mutombo: What's great about Deke it that my grandfather used to watch him when he was young. I really love that finger waving thing that he does! Who cares that the NBA once banned the finger waving and issued technical fouls as far back as last season. Who cares that somehow the NBA forgot that rule and now allows a 75-year old man to wave his finger all over the court after every slightly tipped shot. And who cares that he offers no offensive game ever... all I know is that he's super cool!

Luis Scola: Everyone loves a flopping Argentinean! Who doesn't love that the NBA considers him a top rookie player... despite playing professional basketball since the 1996-97 season. Who doesn't like power forwards who commit moving screens. Let me tell you... only haters hate this guy! He's hate-free in my mind!

Rafer Alston: I heard he used to play with the And-1 crew... that's neat! I LOVE how they have an announcer that talks constantly throughout those basketball games. Who doesn't love that? In fact, we need more of that in everyday life. How neat would it be if at work some dude is following you around... "There's Carl "C-Wod" Woodman!!!! He's getting coffee!!!! OH NO HE DI-INT!! OH... NO... HE... DI... INT!!! HE JUST PUT CREAMER IN.... HIS.... COFEEEAAAHHHH!" With that kind of pedigree, how is Altson NOT ahead of CP3, Deron Williams, Tony Parker, Jason Kidd and Boom Dizzle as the top point guard out west?

Steve Francis: Good old Stevie Franchise! I don't care that he only played 10 games this season or that Houston is basically paying him NOT to play... he's a winner in my book. There are a TON of NBA greats who have NEVER advanced in the playoffs (Yao Ming and Tracy McGrady). He's still neat in my eyes.

The Houston Rockets Schedule: Some people have criticized the Rockets for not beating anyone worth a damn during this winning streak. I say they're just haters! Who cares that the Lakers were missing their 2nd (Gasol), 3rd (Bynum) and 6th (Ariza) best players. The Rockets were missing the best player in the history of the entire free world in Yao Ming!!!! Who cares that the Mavericks were missing the defending league MVP... the Rockets have been missing Yao! A winning streak is a winning streak is a winning streak... and the Rockets have shown... THEY'RE THE BESTEST!

Tracy McGrady: I obviously saved the best for last! Forget Kobe, LeBron, Garnett, Barron Davis, Chris Paul, Deron Williams or Chauncey Billups... Tracy McGrady is flat out my MVP winner for 2007-08! Forget that he's missed an average of 16 games a season since he arrived in Houston. Forget that he's missed 15 games this season alone. Forget that at 22.0 ppg, he's averaging the lowest since his days in Toronto. Forget he's averaging 5.0 rebounds, the second lowest of his career. And forget that he's NEVER advanced in the postseason in his 11-year career... other NBA greats (like Yao Ming) have never advanced in the playoffs. T-Mac is my MVP simply because he's great. I if you don't think he's THE MVP... well you're just a hater and you're racist!

If I had a vote on MVP, I'd split it 50-50 with Yao Ming and T-Mac. How can you not love what they're doing?

The NBA... Where the Rockets Rule!!!!

Sheesh... that was the toughest post ever!