The Association

Six Predictions for the 2010-11 Season

By Craig Kwasniewski   

Hey stranger... long time no talk.  And just in time for the season...

In all reality I just want to get in a few predictions just to block quote myself in "I told you so" post this June.  (BTW - I've been "making predictions" for years and have yet to furnish an "I told you so" post if you know what I mean.)  Anyway, let's quickly roll out the predictions before Miami throws a championship parade...

1. David Stern will continue to play the MLB handbook of how to publicly negotiate a CBA.  The NBA is thinking about contracting????  Right on schedule David.  Soon we'll hear about most of the teams hemorrhaging money... oh wait we already heard that?  Yep, David Stern is following Major League Baseball's book of negotiating the CBA in the media.  The next six months will be gloom and doom. We'll hear a lot of talk about "despite the success of the Miami Heat" teams are still losing money.  They whole contracting thing was Stern's tell.  Come on David, you're better than that to play that card so soon.  

Listen closely... THE NBA IS NOT CONTRACTING!!!  This is just CBA psycho-babble.  And it was a bunch of billionaries in Major League Baseball complaining that they're losing money that completely turned me off to the sport.  It wasn't the steroid era or the '94 strike or Red Sox fans acting like they're cursed when the Cubs are the real cursed franchise.  Nope.  It was ridiculously rich guys manipulating their finances to negoitiate with the player's union.  And if anyone remembers, it was congress that asked for MLB to "open their books" that we realized things weren't all that bad.  

Stern's playing the same card, saying how the NBA is struggling in it's current form, claiming contraction may be necessary and talking about how there needs to be a hard cap for the league to survive.  I guarantee we won't see ticket prices drop the same percentages of this hard cap.  Hey, how about a hard cap on ticket prices.  Yeah, I thought so.  This is just a ploy for the rich to get richer and just like baseball, sadly I may find myself tuning out the NBA.  

2. LeBr-ANGER will reign in the media.  I'm not talking about the backlash from last summer's The Decision, but the backlash to the backlash.  Oh there will be a lot of writers on their high horses around December when the Heat have the best record in the NBA.  These are the LeBron James guys who are quietly lurking, waiting patiently to jump out and scream 'I KNEW IT!!!!"  These are the same ones who were OUTRAGED!!! that LeBron wasn't a unanimous MVP last season.  Remember, Bron had something like 99.9% of the votes yet how dare the few dissenters get in the way of his legacy (or is it LeBregacy).  How dare people have an independent thought!!!  Well, there's already a slow, steady rumble... just you wait until Christmas Day after the Heat beat LA (who could care less about a regular season game and won't get wrapped in the hype). 

3. Phoenix will be better than people think.  Amar'e bolted for the bright lights of NYC. (Well bolted wasn't the reality.  More like Phoenix low balled him, giving him no option but to head to the Knicks. What a shock, the Suns went on the cheap.)  Gone is their athletic superstar, true highlight reel, their best rebounder, best lowpost scorer, annual All-Star and "we're a contender with this guy" guy.  In comes Hedu Tukoglu, exiled from Toronto for good reason... he stunk and Hakim Warrick.  On paper a true 50 cents on the dollar deal.  But I like the gamble.  Instead of finding a big for a big they went long and fast. Meaning, they grabbed two guys that will fit in Alvin Gentry's SSOL offense.  

The Suns found their rhythm last year because they were loaded with guys who could hit the deep J's and spread the floor for both Nash and Dragic to work their magic.  Turkoglu was always able to shot from beyond the arc and he brings another clutch player for the Suns down the stretch (remember, he was THE Magic's go to guy during their title run in 2009).  Yes, Turkoglu doesn't play any defense, but let's be honest here neither did Amar'e.  The Suns know exactly what kind of team they are in a speed, great perimeter shooting and just enough D.  The X-factor is Steve Nash's leadership and I expect a 2009 Turkoglu instead of the Toronto version.  I'm not saying the Suns are a repeat Western Conference Finalist but I expect a top 6 finish.  

4. Utah Jazz are a legit threat to the Lakers.  First off, I was completely wrong in thinking the Al Jefferson deal didn't improve the Jazz.  I'm still a little weary an injury-prone player who never seemed to carry his team to the playoffs.  But I saw Jefferson play the Lakers last week and they guy is seriously locked in.  I know it was preseason, but he gave Pau Gasol fits on both ends of the floor.  He controlled the glass and scored anytime he posted up.  Utah just might be able to hang with LA's size.  

But the real reason why Utah is a legit threat to LA is the sneaky-good Raja Bell signing.  Lakers fans never really felt threatened by the Jazz the past three seasons because they never had a player who could hang with Kobe.  When all else failed, Kobe could bail out the Lakers with a dominant 40 point game.  AK-47 might hang with Kobe a quarter or two but eventually Bryant would break, leaving Kirlienko walking away with slumped shoulders and shaking his head.  Despite his age and being maybe a slight step slower, Raja Bell has physical skills and more importantly mental make-up to hang with Kobe.  Great baseball closers never let the last pitch get under their skin.  A blown save is easily forgotten the next day.  Bell (like Bruce Bowen) approaches defending Kobe the exact same way.  Kobe might be in one of those zones where every deep three is falling and Staples Center is going crazy, yet there's Bell in Kobe's face with the same lock-down intensity regardless of the score.  Combined with Kirlienko, the Jazz can work and older Kobe all game defensively.  I expect a few off nights against Utah this season.  Mix one of the top coaches in NBA history, a top 3 point guard and still one of the best home courts and the Lakers have a serious challenge with the Utah Jazz.

5. LeBron will win the MVP.  Kevin Durant will be the early favorite and for good reason.  What he did last summer with Team USA, carrying them on his back and winning the World Champioship, was beyond impressive (and sad that few will remember the feat because most Americans can give a crap about the FIBA championships).  I'm looking forward to watching Durant grow as a player the next few years.  HOWEVER, I feel as this season continues people will appreciate what LeBron does with the Heat.  It's not easy to create a team out of thin air, no matter how talented, and lead them to 60-plus wins.  And make no mistake (football cliche), the Heat are LeBron's team and he'll earn that MVP.

6. Lakers will threepeat.  Yeah, big shock, a Lakers fan goes with his team to with the title.  Hear me out... Miami will match and probably exceed the hype.  But it's hard to create a championship out of nothing.  The playoffs are all about talent, heart and soul (which Miami has) but it's also about experience as a team and the belief in one another.  The Heat haven't been down that road yet.  How will they respond to a series deficit or the slow/grind-out style of a team like the Celtics (LeBron's Pistons though we're no longer allowed to compare him to Jordan).  2010-11 isn't the Heat's year... but 2011 thru 2014 will be a different story.

I don't really need to go too deep into why the Lakers will win as we've heard it all before.  But the the signings of Steve Blake and Matt Barnes were exactly what the doctor ordered.  The Lakers sorely needed PG depth and Blake is a perfect Triangle Offense guy with his hoops IQ and outside shooting.  Barnes is the Lakers counter to LeBron-to-Miami.  Like Bell and AK-47 will combine to give Kobe a tough 48 minutes, Barnes and Artest will do the same for LeBron.  Two strong, physical, defensive-minded forwards and most importantly 12 fouls for LeBron.  Oh and the Lakers have quality depth up front.  Miami is going with Ilgauskus?  But I'm getting ahead of myself as...

I don't think Miami gets past the Boston Celtics.  The Celtics basically traded Rasheed Wallace for the O'Neal brothers.  The Celtics have a ton of depth up front to close off the lanes against Miami and control the pace.  Plus, after last season, Doc Rivers has entered in the exclusive coach-for-the-entire-season rather than game-to-game group with Phil Jackson and Gregg Popovich (seriously, after last season I really believe Doc is a top 5 coach.  The NBA is all about massaging egos and those three are THE experts at it.)  The Celtics are built for two things, to beat the Miami Heat and Los Angeles Lakers.  Rondo will only get better and The Big Three have just enough in the tank for one or two more runs at a title.  I can't wait to see how this Celtics squad plays out and will keep a close eye on them from out here in LA.  Plus, let's be honest, Shaq riding off in the sunset in the Finals against LA would be, dare I say... fan-Shaq-stic! 

Lakers will beat Boston in 7 games to win the 2010-11 title and give Phil Jackson a four threepeat.

Get NBA predictions from our experts and beat the NBA spreads this year.

Thursday TNT Hoops Preview

By Craig Kwasniewski

You know tonight there's actually more than just announcing the All Star Reserves, right? TNT was nice enough to put together a virtual pick-me-up bouquet of a double-header to cheer up the Deron Williams, Chris Kaman and Andrew Bynum fans as their guys failed to make the All Star game (in D-Will's case... yet again).

BTW - While I have your attention, I have a very hard time admitting any New York Knicks to All-Star Weekend, to defend a slam dunk title or as a power forward reserve, after that 50 point embarrassment last Sunday. Yeah they sort of bounced back against the second worst team in the league, but no team should ever lose a home game by 50. Never not any! As punishment, all Knicks should lose their Dallas privileges for that weekend. Sorry to all those David Lee lifers.

Back to Thursday's Hoop Preview (all times Pacific):

Boston at Orlando (5:00 PM):  Nice to open with a rematch of the Eastern Conference Semis.  And really nice of Boston to be nearly in the same health with KG dragging his knee all over the floor as Celtics fans cross their fingers together so hard they bleed hoping and praying he'll be healthy enough for the playoff run.  Sheed is on week 13 of his 26 week play-myself-into-shape workout regimen.  The funny thing is does he really need to be in shape to trail on the break, jack up threes from the top of the arc or occasionally play in the post?  Obviously Sheed agrees while Celtics fans slowly accept that he's signed until 2011-12.... Have fun with that Boston!

Orlando is still looking for an identity while learning that life ain't so easy with championship expectations, learning to play Vince Carter ball (poor shot selection, random injuries, disappearing acts) and with a big target on your back. Last year Orlando stole a few games while the rest of the league was debating between Boston or Cleveland as the beast of the east.  I'm wondering if Magic fans saw Turkoglu break down the Lakers last Sunday and pull out a very veteran savvy W.  How many fans are secretly wanting a do over between Carter and Hedo. 

Boston blew out Orlando on Christmas Day.  *IF* the Magic decide to actually work the ball inside to Dwight Howard, they win easily.  The problem is that much of this season the Magic have gone away from their best player, which totally makes sense?!?  Tonight they attack down low and Orlando wins 96-88.

Dallas at Phoenix (7:30 PM):  Danger, danger, danger!  It's officially panic time in Phoenix!  In November they were talking 50+ wins and a long shot at another MVP award for Steve Nash.  Now... now, they break out with huge leads in the second quarter, blow them late and lose every single time.  Injuries are starting to mount, the coaching staff is making panic line-up adjustments and the feeling is that they'll be lucky to get an 8 seed.  And let's not forget the HUGE pink elephant that is the Amar'e Stoudemire trade rumors.  Early in the season I really liked how this Suns roster was put together.  They had the right finishers and more importantly the best perimeter shooting since the 06-07 team.  But they lack that run stopping low post threat.  Amar'e is more of a pick and roll finisher and nobody else has the low post game... so they become the typical live-by-the-three die-by-the-three team and there's a lot of dying these days.

Dallas seems very content in their role as 2nd or 3rd best team in the west.  They're pulling out every close game (10 one point wins in a row!) and have the right mix of talent to be considered a Western Conference Finalist.  Not bad for a team that looked to pull off the ultimate panic trade for Jason Kidd.  Instead they got a floor leader that took off all the pressure on Dirk, who's playing his best basketball since the MVP season.  Serious props to the Mavs front office for this team!

Quite simply, Phoenix is deep into panic mode and won't be able to protect any lead (if any) as Dallas wins easily 112-101.

Cavs/Lakers - Where Size DOES Matter

By Craig Kwasniewski

Lakers/Cavs, LeBron/Kobe, Bynum/Shaq, Mike Brown/Phil Jackson's clipboard (Come on, it's too unfair to compare Mike Brown to the greatest head coach in NBA history, so we'll go with his equal... PJ's clipboard, hey but it's not any old clipboard, so at least Mike's got that going for himself, which is nice.)

Anyway, the top two teams in the NBA meet tonight for the final time in the regular season. I would have said for a possible Finals preview but with the Celtics, Hawks, Magic and Nuggets there's still a lot of great teams that both the Lakers and Cavaliers have to pass through before ESPN/Nike's dream NBA Finals.

So let's get down to the nitty gritty and preview the matchup between these two.

Size DOES Matter: "Nobody can match the Lakers size", "Damn the Lakers are long!", "Bynum, Gasol, Odom... now THAT's a frontcourt!"... all very true and I thought the Lakers size and quality depth would be a HUGE difference on Christmas Day. Except the exact opposite happened and the Lakers were blown out.

The Cavs are the one team in the NBA that can outsize the Lakers. I'm not sure if it was a key adjustment or just dumb luck, but 4 minutes into the Christmas game, Mike Brown put in a lineup of LeBron, Mo Williams, Anthony Parker, Shaq and Ilgauskas and the Cavs took over. The Cavs were bigger and stronger in all five positions and discouraged the Lakers bigs from attacking the lane. Cleveland rendered the Lakers a jump shooting team and became the aggressors and anyone who's watched the NBA knows, the refs ALWAYS favor calls with the more aggressive teams. The game became a blowout and a very festive Staples Center crowd grew impatient and frustrated while they watched the NBA Champs wilt to the Cavs. It was embarassing... and as a Lakers fan VERY scary. The Lakers aren't supposed to be out-sized.

Cleveland is NOT Boston: On Christmas Day there was no message to be delivered, this wasn't a rivalry, these aren't the defending champs with angry, pasty, drunk, obnoxious, ugly, retarded, racist (we all know how racist Boston really is, in fact that all white professional basketball league proposed putting an entire division in the Boston area... but I digress), ugly, annoying Celtics fans... this was Cleveland, LeBron and those puppet shoe commercials. There wasn't the same bitter taste in the air like the Celtics game last season and it showed. The Lakers didn't bring the energy but neither did the Staples Center faithful... well at least until the foam finger rained terror and blood was shed from the damage and destruction from the foam fingers (well that's how the media portrayed it so it must be).

Point being, the Lakers played with the same energy of a Clippers game in November and not with a playoff effort.

LeBron is GOD!!!! Enough already!  Let it be said that LeBron is a darn good hoopster.  But do all Clippers/Celtics fans with gigs at ESPN need to remind us about it with a 3,500 sonnet?  I get his angle, no better way to get underneath the skin of Kobe fans than to write about LeBron being the best basketball player on the planet.  Fine!  By his definition he is.  Well my definition is a tad different and I'm okay with being an 11-year Lakers season ticket holder and watching SIX NBA Finals appearances and FOUR NBA titles.  You can have the best basketball player on the planet... I'm okay with watching Kobe in person and actually winning rings!

The Verdict:  The Lakers have the best coach in NBA history, two bonafide All-Stars in Gasol and Kobe (Mo Williams is a good player but *NOT* All-Star material!), more versatile depth (they can play with speed or in a slow it up game) and they have the better clutch players (plural here folks, it's not just Kobe vs. LeBron down the stretch, it's also Fisher and Gasol)...

HOWEVER, the Cavs size really threw the Lakers off their game on Christmas Day and I think that's the difference tonight as Cleveland beats Los Angeles 104-97.

BTW - I have this weird feeling about the Cavs... I think this is the year LeBron finally gets his ring.  There's something about this team, first the media wrote them off too soon, plus the Celtics are looking VERY old and the Magic are wilting under expectations... this is FINALLY LeBron's year.

5 Predictions for the 2008-09 Season

by Craig Kwasniewski

The Association Blog is up a ready to go for the 2008-09 season! I'm rested, I'm rejuvenated and I'm just about over Game 4...

So let's get this thing rolling with 5 predictions for the 2008-09 season (BTW - for those of you keeping score at home, I was an embarrassing 2 of 5 in my predictions last season):

1 - Houston slightly edges out Philadelphia as most overrated. The easy pick for most overrated team is Philly. Elton Brand coming off a serious injury joining a team with zero perimeter shooting and a point guard notorious for being a great player on a bad team but a below-average player on a good one. That's an easy first round exit!

Nope, Houston wins the award for most overrated team of the season. Fresh off another yet another first round exit, destroying along the way all the good memories of that winning streak (seriously what was it: 17, 23, 87? I really don't know. All I know is I TOLD YOU SO!!!!!) the Rockets bring in Ron Artest.

Size up the rings, roll out the parade and drop a banner! Forget that the current dynamic duo is injury prone and have never advanced beyond the first round IN THEIR ENTIRE CAREER. Forget that their head coach while a good regular season coach is notorious for getting a case of sphincter-itis beyond April. Forget that the point guard should be running along side Tha Professor at Rucker Park instead of lining up against CP3, Deron Williams, Tony Parker and Steve Nash. Oh and forget that your NBA title hopes fall on the shoulders of Ron Artest.

2 - The Boston Icon Curse is VERY real! No I'm not talking about the quality of women from Beantown. The new curse involves the sporting icons from Boston. SNAP!!! Tom Brady blows out his knee, then POP!!! goes the Papi's wrist (along with a very clutch .186 in the postseason)... So which "icon" on the Celtics gets it? Obviously to everyone not named Paul Pierce (who's STILL thinks he's an elite player, though he somehow forgot all those "elite" seasons before Garnett bailed his ass out), a KG injury would severely hamper any shot at a repeat. Look I'm not wishing any injuries on the Celtics, but still....

3 - San Antonio's every other streak ends. If the pattern held to form the Spurs would be NBA champs in 08-09. They won titles in 02-03, 04-05 and 06-07 impressively with mid-February runs after coasting though the first half of the season. Manu's hurt, they lack that "it" energy guy they seem to always find and their veterans are O-L-D. The Spurs are at their best with Duncan resting through All-Star break riding Manu's energy through the first half. Now they have to hope Duncan has a full 82 games in him this year. I can't see it happening. We're two years away from the phrase, "Tim Duncan's corpse."

4 - LeBron James will win the MVP! Hard to believe but with all the Chris Paul love LeBron James is officially under the radar. It's like the NBA media is strictly monogamous, they can only drool on one guy a year. Last season they "dated" LeBron, then Kobe and CP3 now they're in a fully committed relationship with Paul and have issued an MVP Save the Date for May. Did they not see King James in the Olympics? The guy seems prime and ready for a massive season (like Jordan in 1987). Remember, the Cavs came a few minutes shy of knocking of the Celtics literally weeks after retooling their roster? Now LeBron gets a full season with this roster and he looks prime to take the MVP.

5 - Lakers will beat the Cavs in the Finals. Cleveland has the right pieces and more importantly the Celtics lost two HUGE components in James Posey and PJ Brown from last season's title. LeBron will prevail in a hard-fought 7 game series over Boston to earn a place in the Finals.

The Lakers will struggle early on trying to fit Andrew Bynum into the same roster that won the Western Conference but things will start to turn around in December. They have the deepest team in the NBA, despite being crushed by Tom Thibodeau in the Finals (come-on we all know Doc did nothing) they still have one of the best coaches ever, they got a full preseason of Pau Gasol and oh and by the way, they still have the best closer in the NBA. Do they have that toughness necessary to win a title? Can they win with two 5's on the floor? Will Kobe hold up after a long and busy off season? Will Odom's and Bynum's contract situations be distracting? Will the Buss family hold together or will they unravel like is years past? This is LA, there's always drama and the Lakers seem to rise above it. Their depth will allow Kobe to rest up and get them through the annual rash of injures that come in early January. And they will win the 2008-09 NBA Title!

5 Predictions for the 2007-08 Season

By Craig Kwasniewski

In lieu of a typical bloated NBA preview, here are a few things I think will happen this season:

1. Kobe will be traded to Chicago after December 15th. Wow, another Kobe trade prediction... how original! Yeah but in this case, it *WILL* happen. Laker idiot, Jim Buss loves hustling white guys and Andres Nocioni's new contract prevents any deal before December 15th. I see some sort of deal of Tyrus Thomas, Andres Nocioni and Ben Gordon for Kobe Bryant. Luol Deng will NEVER get traded to the Lakers!!! All Bulls GM John Paxson has to do is wait for the Lakers to panic and lower their demands. Expect a panic from the Lakers especially with a difficult early schedule, Odom still being injured and with all the Kobe distractions.

2. The Celtics will *NOT* advance to the NBA Finals. First off, let me say that I love that the C's are relevant again. And big ups to Danny Ainge for having the balls to roll the dice on Big Three, Part Deux. That being said, the C's are still coached by Doc Rivers and have a second year, unproven player at the point. Much like the 1997 Houston Rockets, the Celtics glaring weakness at the point will eventually be their downfall in the postseason. Plus Rivers will find a way to "Doc up" the season, because he's still the worst head coach in the NBA. Just because Garnett is playing for the C's doesn't mean Rivers suddenly got a prescription to smart pills. Once Rivers is fired, the C's will win it all... in 2008-09.

3. Yao Ming will be exposed as a fraud. Rich Adelman's high-post offense requires a big with high basketball IQ, who's a good passer and a has decent shooting range. I can't see Ming fitting into the fluid, heavy-backdoor cutting offense that Adleman runs. So expect another first round exit in the postseason for the guy. How many coaches do we have to go through to realize that just because he gets a bajillion web hits on NBA.com/china does NOT make him an All-Star?

4. You will be carpet bombed wil a TON of "Melo's finally getting it" stories... and Denver still loses in the first round. The Nike media machine will be in full force with Melo this season.... again. Expect a ton of "Melo and Karl are getting along better than ever" and "Melo's been a great leader" stories as the season goes along. But just like all of his previous playoff efforts, a healthy dose of George Karl choking, Kenyon Martin getting injured, Marcus Camby getting hurt and Melo getting frustrated will lead to yet another disappointing season in Denver.

5. The Phoenix Suns win the NBA Title. Here's a fact: the Spurs NEVER repeat as champs. Maybe it's the guilt of having 2 asterisks to their titles or they get complacent, but they never repeat. Dallas is in emotional shambles. So that leaves it to the Phoenix Suns. They were a few poorly officiated games from winning it last season and with Nash's leadership and another season of basically the same core of players, I see the Suns having the drive (and veteran depth with Hill) to win it all. Suns over the Pistons 4-2 in the 2007-08 NBA Finals.

Somebody Doesn't Know That LeBron Is In the NBA Finals

by Brett Edwards

As Matt Watson so eloquently put it this morning, Even David Blaine Can't Get Detroit Into the NBA Finals. I thought I was the only one (outside of Detroit) that was hoping to see the Pistons and the Spurs in the Finals, but it looks like the person in charge of this page over at NBA.com had the same hopes. This page is still up, and (shockingly) doesn't feature LeBron James who, besides being the greatest player ever, is actually in the Finals.

Anyway, with the Finals starting tonight, it's prediction time. Long time readers of this site may be surprised to hear it, but I'm picking the Spurs to sweep. The Eastern Conference has been an abomination all season, and the Spurs are too good defensively to be beaten, even once, by a one man team like Cleveland.

This doesn't mean I'm rooting for the Spurs though (obviously), and I can't root for a team whose second best player this post-season is nicknamed "Boobie." But I will be watching and live-blogging the whole series, so feel free to harass me over at the FanHouse while I come up with new and exciting ways to rip on both of these teams.

Playoff Predictions: Conference Semifinals

By Craig Kwasniewski

Here's my quick predictions for the Conference Semifinals. Normally I'd throw down a paragraph cracking on the likes of Tony Longoria, the media willing to go third input from LeBron or the culture clash of the Warriors hitting the Salt Lake City "nightlife" but I just moved and I'm stuck writing this at some Starbucks while I wait for internet access at home. So here's my picks:

(5) Chicago Bulls vs. (1) Detroit Pistons: Detroit in six.

(6) New Jersey Nets vs. (2) Cleveland Cavaliers: Cleveland in seven.

(3) San Antonio Spurs vs. (2) Phoenix Suns: San Antonio in six.

(8) Golden State Warriors vs. (4) Utah Jazz: Utah in seven.

Playoff Preview: Western Conference

by Brett Edwards

Playoff Previews are literally everywhere right now, so this will mostly include the formality of getting our predictions down before the title run begins. Here we go, Western Conference style:

(1) DALLAS vs. (8) GOLDEN STATE: Henry at True Hoop said it best when it seems that Warriors fans are "just happy to be here." That is evidenced by the banner at the top of their site that reads:

"The playoff drought is over! We're in the PLAYOFFS!!!

Good job guys, but those three exclamation points are three more wins than the Warriors are getting in this series. Mavs SWEEP, 4-0.

Craig says: Mavs 4-1. The GS Warriors bandwagon is flying along... and I don't care. Dallas rolls after losing game 2 at home.

(2) PHOENIX vs. (7) L.A. LAKERS: I broke this one down over at The FanHouse, and it comes down to whether or not the Lakers can slow the tempo (like they did for thee games last year), and I don't think they can. Kobe is good for one Laker win, and that's it. Suns in 5.

Craig says: Suns 4-1

(3) SAN ANTONIO vs. (6) DENVER: The 'Melo/A.I. train has gathered plenty of steam towards the end of the season, just to have it crash into the proverbial mountain. The Nuggets whacked a bunch of nobodies, meanwhile the Spurs finished the season with the highest average margin of victory per game at over 8 points. What's impressive about that stat is the fact that the Spurs only average 98 points per game, so they've been doing it with defense. Spurs in 5.

Craig says: Spurs 4-2. Not really close, but AI has one monster game and the Spurs lead 3-1, but get bored.

(4) UTAH vs. (5) HOUSTON: Note to Jazz fans (are there really any of those?): Your team is a fraud. The Jazz are the only team in the West's top six with a losing road record. If you can't win on the road, you're not going very far in the playoffs. T-Mac gets his first post-season series win, in an easy six games. Rockets in 6.

Craig says: Hou 4-2. Utah's slide is telling (they're a distant 5th best in the west), but I still think they give HOU a run.

Thursday Hoops Preview

By Craig Kwasniewski

Just two weeks left in the season and tonight's double header features four of the top eight teams in the league. I was secretly hoping to see one of the blatantly tanking teams tonight just to hear Barkley bitch about them. Wasn't the whole concept of the draft lottery to prevent tanking? David Stern really needs to fix the lottery process, it's embarrassing to the league.

Anyway, back to tonight’s games (all times Pacific):

Miami at Cleveland (5:00 PM): D-Wade's not ready to return just yet. So instead of a dueling freethrow contest between Wade and LeBron, we'll actually get to see a basketball game tonight. Miami is rounding into playoff form and despite the predictably slow start, the Heat look like the second best team in the east. By the end of the season, Miami could lock up the three seed, clearing the way for a second round showdown with Cleveland (and David Stern's wet dream).

The talk out of Cleveland is LeBron's "injured" knee. LBJ missed Sunday's loss to Boston to rest the knee, but came back with a flourish a few days later. I don't see it as any problem tonight (but if LBJ misses a few clutch jumpers I guarantee he'll mention that he's not 100%), but with Shaq rounding into playoff form Miami wins 98-95.

Phoenix at San Antonio (7:30 PM): This is the "oh shit, San Antonio's still very good" game. As I wrote a few weeks ago:

Phoenix better watch out for San Antonio come playoff time. The Spurs are one of the few teams that won't get sucked into their run and gun style of play and their vets are getting a lot of rest this season.

(I've always wanted to blockquote myself.)

While the media's been gushing about Phoenix and Dallas all season, San Antonio's been resting their veterans and cruising to 58 wins and a three seed in the west. This would be a great time to throw out some Texas Hold 'em analogy about the Spurs waiting for the right hand to go all in, but I prefer Pai Gow Poker so I won't. Tonight, they split the four of a kind and San Antonio wins 107-102.

Thursday TNT Action

By Craig Kwasniewski

TNT returns to action tonight after a break from last week for the NCAA’s. Before we take a quick look at tonight’s games, how’s everyone’s bracket? Notice how the women are bombing in the office pools? The lack of any major upsets this year is killing the “best looking uniform” picks. My bracket died when my darkhorse Final Four pick of Washington State lost (I watched all of one college basketball game this year, what can you expect?).

Anyway, back to tonight’s games (all times Pacific):

Detroit at Chicago (5:00 PM): Hot off Sheed’s 62-foot jump shot (I’m not calling it a heave or throw because according to the Pistons’ homers, Sheed practices that shot. In fact, didn’t Flip draw up that play in the huddle? “Sheed you come off the curl and shoot it from halfcourt! Pistons on three!”) the Pistons are hoping that win carries over tonight. The flu bug has struck the Pistons and C-Webb, Dale Davis, and Richard Hamilton could all miss this game. Normally I'd say the Pistons win easily, but now it looks like a close one... Chicago beats Detroit 96-91.

Phoenix at Golden State (7:30 PM): This one should be fun, a total non-stop track meet. Golden State is playing for their playoff lives and are pretty good home team (25-11). Having already won the Pacific Division, the Suns are fighting off a little boredom, as they're getting ready for the playoffs. As we know, there's no team in the NBA that can beat the Suns at their pace, so Phoenix beats Golden State 115-109.