The Association

Using an 80's Movie Classic (Not Karate Kid) to Describe Five Things Heading Into Game 6

By Craig Kwasniewski

Okay this is it... or is it? The final home game for the Lakers, the final game in Phil Jackson's career, Derek Fisher's final game as a Laker, the beginning of the end with Byron Scott taking PJ's place on the bench (and it WILL happen when Jackson leaves... this year or next)... all these things could possibly be on the line as Boston looks to close out LA in Game 6.

Phil Jackson's been known to edit game films with move cuts to send a message to his troops. With that in mind, and with a very real possibility that tonight is the last game for the greatest coach in NBA history, here are five quotes from the movie Wall Street to best describe what to expect in Game 6:

Remember there are no shortcuts, son. Quick buck artists come and go with every bull market, but the steady players make it through the bear market.  Lou Mannheim and the voice of reason, the angel on Bud Fox's shoulder if you will. The Lakers need to realize there are no shortcut to defending a title. You can't roll up to a team like Boston and expect to win just by being there. The Bull market was playing a team like Orlando, young, full of energy but not as mentally tough. The Lakers NEED to match the Celtics' mental and physical toughness in Game 6. This starts in the trenches on defense and the boards. We can talk about how little impact the Kobe-aires had offensively in Game 5, but the game was really lost on defense. Boston shot a stunning 56% from the field. STUNNING!!! Now the Lakers are in a bear market, with nowhere to hide and no room for mistake... no shortcuts!!! Especially on defense.

Sun-tzu: If your enemy is superior, evade him. If angry, irritate him. If equally matched, fight, and if not split and reevaluate.  Quote of a movie of a quote from a book but everyone knows who this is. For the Lakers to even have a shot at extending this series Pau Gasol needs to listed to Bud Fox and fight. The thing about the 2-3-2 format is that it really gives the host of the middle three games a shot at completely changing the momentum of the series. Doesn't it feel like we've been in Boston for literally weeks? The Lakers went from a confident defending champs to a team that no longer feels an equal to Boston. Much of this falls on Ron Artest and Lamar Odom but mostly it's Pau Gasol. Heading into the series, Gasol was equally matched with KG yet in the past few games instead of fighting KG head on he's been "splitting and reevaluating." There's no time to split and reevaluate... there's no tomorrow for LA, the Lakers NEED Gasol now to have any chance at taking this to Game 7.

Man looks in the abyss, there’s nothing staring back at him. At that moment, man finds his character. And that is what keeps him out of the abyss.  The quote that inspired me to write this piece and the one that applies to none other than Lamar Odom. He's not only staring into the abyss, but he's firmly in it. What happened to the player that used to hold his own against KG? What happened to the smile? The rebounds? The heart? It's all gone. One big factor is Lamar Odom is terrible on Sundays. Okay not terrible in a Smush Parker sense but terrible in that his numbers drop by 20% on Sundays versus the rest of the week. (This postseason he averages 7.4 pts and 7.4 rebs on Sunday, the rest of the week he average 10.7 pts and 9.0 rebounds.) So maybe he's just due for a quality double-double that Lakers fans have been begging for. Lamar, get out of the abyss.

And what I do, stock and real estate speculation. It's bullshit. You got ninety percent of the American public out there with little or no net worth. I create nothing. I own.  Gordon Gekko laying down the law to Bud Fox best describes Kobe's impact offensively in this series. He's really like a speculator, creating wealth for himself only. He owns. But his numbers don't create wealth for the rest of the Lakers, the ninety percent of the public with little or no wealth. See that's the beauty of the Celtics defensive schemes, the goad Kobe into his one-on-one game, knowing that at the end of the day he'll try to prove to everyone win or lose that he's the true alpha dog. Yes, Kobe has put up some good numbers against the Celtics defense, but the most important number is 2 and 3 as in wins and losses. With the Lakers on the brink, Kobe needs to "spread the wealth" and dump the Gekko principle.

The point is, ladies and gentleman, that greed, for lack of a better word, is good.  Eighteen titles... nuff said. For Boston Celtics fans, greed is good. Yes, I look at this Lakers team, the one I've followed closely for the last 11 years as a season ticket holder and I can't see enough of the inner strength and belief to hold off the Celtics. If I saw Fox, Fisher, Horry, Kobe and Shaq, I'd feel completely different. They fought through the hard battles, they learned how to depend on each other, to lean on the right person, to fight as individuals and as one when the time was needed. I see this Lakers team, this all-but-very-different Western Conference Champs Threepeat and I don't see the same thing. I don't see the unity, the right mixture of individual talent and us-against-the-world feeling that the early 2000's Lakers and present-day Celtics have. For Boston, greed is good... and so is title number eighteen.

Is It Safe to Call It The Kobe Rules?

By Craig Kwasniewski

Okay I'll get out and say it: the Celtics have figured out how to defend Kobe. Sorry Lakers fans, but your savior hasn't shown the patience to properly defeat the Celtics' well-organized team defense. He's shooting a paltry 39.4% from the field and while working extremely hard to get his 26.7 points. I know, I know... you can never keep an offensive force like Kobe down. One of the next few games he'll blow up with a dominant 30 plus game... right? RIGHT?!?

(BTW - Well organized, that's a total soccer term, but really it applies to the Celtics on defense. They have their game principles and STICK to them all the friggin' time. If this were the World Cup, they would be Italy, with technical brilliance and the ability to contain and control opponents. Yet we never hear the term well organized in basketball because of the game's quick pace, but believe me, the Celtics defense is deserving of this label.)

Anyway, I'm not sure if Kobe has a quality offensive game in him against the Celtics. It takes patience and the willingness to trust in the offense and let the game come to you. It also requires one to listen to a coach saying something... ohhhh like... "Michael, who's open?"

Yep, we've seen this before: The Jordan Rules of the late 80's Pistons. Their physical, intimidating, intelligent and controlling defense was the only thing to contain Michael Jordan in his prime (not including the Birmingham Barrons and the Wizards era). The only way Michael was able to finally conquer Detroit is with the Triangle Offense, based on spacing and most importantly a trust in his teammates. (BTW - It didn't hurt that expansion sent Rick Mahorn away in 1991) Phil Jackson rolled in and got the NBA's greatest individual talent to buy into the team game and poof, Detroit and the Jordan Rules were gone.

I'm not saying that Kobe doesn't buy into the Triangle, but I'm saying that Kobe isn't patient enough to use the Triangle when it's need most...like RIGHT NOW!

As I've said repeatedly, the biggest problem with Kobe is his competitive streak. It's his biggest asset, it drives him to become the player he is today. Working out, improving his game, being one step ahead on conditioning... all these are a result of that competitive streak. But it also leads him into these alpha dog moments. It came out in game two when Ray Allen was on FIYAH hitting literally every three point shot in the gym. Kobe wanted to match Ray, he wanted to take him on and show who's really The Man. Instead of feeding the post and attacking Boston and capitalizing on the Lakers size advantage (especially with literally EVERY Celtics big in foul trouble that day), Kobe dribbled, dribbled and dribbled, looking to hit the home run shot. The Celtics D rotated over and doubled Kobe with the shot clock running down....CLANG! And POOF goes a very winnable game.

The Celtics know Kobe will always get into these contests. He not only wants to win as a team, but he wants to also win as an individual. And at times, it's really hard to tell which one he prefers.  Anyway, that plays right into the Celtics defensive principles. All five play what is in essence is a physical match-up zone when Kobe has the ball. The zone principles keep Kobe on the perimeter, knowing that it takes a lot of energy to penetrate the lane. Kobe is left trying to figure the defense as the shot clock winds down. Less than five seconds left, the match-up becomes a straight double team, knowing that Kobe doesn't have time (or the trust) to pass off, and he's left forcing a bad jumper.... CLANG!

Kobe seemed to be pressing much of game 3. It's like he was trying to shoot himself INTO a rhythm. Shoot til you're hot, shoot til you're cold... the true shooter's mantra. Well Kobe was definitely shooting to get hot, the problem was that he never found a rhythm. And the shots that did go in were such high degree of difficulty that anyone not named Kobe would be getting killed for such a horrible shot selection. But Kobe is such a good bad ball shooter (you know, like some golfers being bad ball hitters), that we accept these buckets and just marvel at the sickness.

The problem is that for LA to beat the Celtics (and finally exorcise the demons of '08), Kobe needs to trust that the Triangle Offense and let the game come to him. (It's a overused cliche but really against Boston, Kobe has to trust that he'll find his offensive rhythm in the flow of the Triangle)  Game 1 had elements of that, but since then we're seeing more and more of Kobe from the 2008 NBA Finals (who had 25.7 ppg. on 40.5% from the field).  Basically the difference is where his shots are coming from.  "In rhythm" offense is shots taken in the middle of the shot clock on the wings near the freethrow line extended or in the paint.  "Out of rhythm" offense is late in the shotclock, with defenders draped all over him and from the top 1/4 of the three point arc. 

It's weird that even in year 14, we as fans still have to hope Kobe will "get it" and play within the system. But he really needs to for LA to win in Game 4 and put this series on the brink.

Finals Prediction

By Craig Kwasniewski

Let's keep it very brief. Because of terrible time management and my real job taking up the day, I can't break down the finals position-by-position.  Though you can check out a very thorough one at Lakersnation.com (Top 10 Reasons the Lakers Beat the Celtics in 2010).

Anyway here it is:

Lakers in six

Why?

-These aren't the same teams as 2008

-Artest and Bynum instead of Radmanovic and Vujacic

-Posey, Cassell and PJ Brown are NOT here

-Garnett isn't the 2008 version... advantage Gasol

-Revenge... it's over-played and very overrated, but over the past two years a motivated Lakers team is a scary Lakers team.  They get it, they know how to beat Boston.  They're better coached.  They're deeper.  They're tired of hearing they are the underdogs despite being defending champs... they're better and Kobe knows it.

Lakers in 6

Pardon Me But These Aren't Games 7 Thru 11 of the 2008 Finals

By Craig Kwasniewski 

Pop question hotshot: who are the defending champs? 

The Los Angeles Lakers 

No seriously, check the record books, look at the banner in Staples Center or just ask Kobe. As hard as this sounds, the Lakers are the defending champs. I know, I know... that's crazy. But if you'll just do me a solid, look at your calendar and tell me what day it is cause I know for sure it's not June 2008... no matter what the national media wants you to think. 

Let me say that again: THIS IS AIN'T 2008!!! 

Yet that's all I hear. The Lakers need to watch out for those big bad Celtics. The Big Three ran roughshod over LA in 2008 and now Rajon Rondo is playing like the bestestest player in NBA playoff history so why even play the Finals? Rinse, wash and repeat... the Lakers have no chance.

But wait there's more: Rasheed Wallace will destroy Pau Gasol.  Glen Davis is an offensive stalwart that will shock and awe the mediocre Lakers bench.  Paul Pierce and Ray Allen will contain Kobe.  Rondo will be a combination of MJ and Magic and embarrass the Lakers.  Bynum is too hurt to matter.  Artest will freak out and sabotage the Lakers.  Phil Jackson will succumb to the ghost of Red Auerbach and lose his concentration. Rinse, wash and repeat... the Lakers have no chance.

I love the national media.  You guys have no clue what's going on so you break out the playoff talking points. Show the Rambis clothesline again, talk about storied franchises, compare this rivalry to the Yankees-Red Sox in case we can't grasp the concept and talk extensively about 2008.  Talk about how physical the Celtics were, talk about how good their defense was, talk about their cohesion as a team, talk about Game 5 and blown leads, talk about Paul Pierce's Finals MVP and talk about Kevin Garnett's intimidation and leadership.  Rinse, wash and repeat... the Lakers have no chance.

Let me say this again: THIS IS AIN'T 2008!!! 

I also love that the national media completely forgot about 2009.  Lest we forget, it's the Lakers that are the defending champs.  They rebounded from a devestating 2008 NBA Finals to claw, scratch and fight their way through the entire season and capture the title.  Boston got old and hurt and couldn't get out of the second round.  Boston was swept by LA in the regular season.  Boston lost their swagger in '09.  But forget all of that.  It makes bad copy to remember that it's LA with their THIRD straight trip to the finals or that they properly defended their championship also through a season of injuries and age.  

THIS IS AIN'T 2008!!! 

We'll let the games speak for themselves, but Boston's lone advantage over their 2008 team is Rondo's play.  And really, let's be VERY specific, he destroyed Cleveland but was more 2010 regular season Rondo against Orlando.  Meaning good/great but not the iconic point guard of the millennium like the Boston media was saying.  Besides Rondo, the rest of Boston got older.  KG's knee still limits his mobility, Ray Allen's more inconsistent and Paul Pierce breaks down as each series goes along.  The Big Three clearly aren't as dominant as in 2008.  

Let's go even further.  In '08 the bench with the perfect mix of youth and veteran leadership is no longer.  James Posey did a stellar job defending Kobe and hit several big threes. PJ Brown found the right mix of energy and seemed to do everything right.  And Leon Powe crushed the Lakers on the boards.  In 2010, Boston patched together a group of veterans with Tony Allen and Glen Davis and hoped for a repeat of 2008.  Instead they got inconsistency all over the place.  They're not as dominant on defense. And Rasheed Wallace?  After three years of drifting and mailing in playoff games he's suddenly going to lock it down and play like it's 2004.  Hardly.  And even in his prime back in 2005, he still made boneheaded plays down the stretch... Robert Horry ring a bell?

Now let's look at the difference in LA between 2008 and today.  Their top seven in 2008 were Kobe, Fisher, Radmanovic, Odom, Gasol, Vujacic, Farmar and Turiaf.  Their top seven in 2010 are Kobe, Fisher, Artest, Gasol, Bynum, Odom, Farmar and Brown.  More defense and more size.  Yes Bynum's knee is a concern but these aren't the run and gun Suns.  LA will get 25 minutes a game from him. But more importantly, swapping Radmanovic for Artest is a MAJOR improvement on defense.  Gone are the high efficiency offense-first Lakers of '08, instead you get a grittier and smarter Lakers team that figures out their opponents on BOTH ends of the floor as each series progresses.  They're better on defense, they're hoops IQ is much improved, they're tougher... oh and Kobe is still Kobe.

Like I said before: THIS IS AIN'T 2008!!! 

 

Something we never saw in 2008, but saw in 2009 AND 2010, the Lakers winning at Boston.

Kobe Can Never Be the Greatest Laker Until He Beats Boston

By Craig Kwasniewski

Notice how focused Kobe was after beating the Suns? Those sick shots, the concentration down the stretch as the game got tight. Typical Kobe traits, yes, but much more than that. He had an edge... it's like he was tasting the NBA Finals on the tip of his tongue and wanted to dive in. You can see him get locked in as the series moved on. His game taken to a level we rarely see.

Afterwords, notice how he's not merely satisfied with a seventh trip to the finals or a shot at defending the 2009 title? Nope, for Kobe it's much more that the journey. Much more than facing the Big Three or even Rajon Rondo (and really I need to swap that order, it's Rondo's world and we're just visiting)... this title is all about Kobe's legacy.

Kobe's won an MVP, a Finals MVP, Four titles, three All-Star MVP's and two scoring titles... all great for anyone but Kobe. Really at this point Kobe Bryant is facing Magic Johnson and Michael Jordan...two greats that with 5 and 6 titles each that can be caught in the next two years.

Before Kobe can even be put in the same sentence as MJ he needs to surpass Magic as the greatest Laker of all time. Forget being the greatest scorer in franchise history or having four titles. To be the best Laker of all time Kobe needs to win a title against their greatest rival, the Boston Celtics. Yeah Magic has five titles and yeah Kobe may lose this year only to get number five next year, but he's not in the discussion as greatest Laker ever until he beats Boston.

Naively, I never understood the love for the Showtime Era over the Triangle Era. The Triangle Era Lakers, at times, were more dominant and did something the Showtime Era never did, threepeat. (I'm a Phil Jackson guy which mean I loathe Pat Riley and feel his ego outweighs his achievements. TRUE! So I never really understood why Lakers fans continue to treat Riles as their son and Jackson as an outsider.)  But Lakers fans are still very nostalgic for Magic, Kareem, Worthy and Riles. Phil Jackson might have more titles, Kobe might have scored more, even Shaq might have been more dominant... but they never beat Boston. Showtime was the first to do it and even if Phil and Kobe surpass Showtime in titles the only ones that count here in LA are the ones over Boston. People may be too young to remember the Russell years, but they remember 1984 and they definitely remember 2008, two of the most painful losses in franchise history. Kobe needs to be a part of that Celtics exorcism (and really Phil Jackson too) to be considered the greatest in Lakers history.

Until then, Magic Johnson is the face of the franchise... no contest.

The Suns Didn't Get The Memo and a Few Other Thoughts

By Craig Kwasniewski

The Suns didn't get the memo... you know the one that states they're too small to really contend for a title. I mean seriously, they're supposed to be the cutesy team led by the wacky Canadian that scored a ton, didn't play defense but never really contended for a championship. This was supposed to be the team that we all love while the big bad Lakers eventually slap, beat and grind them out of the playoffs. We were all supposed to give standing ovations to Grant Hill for his heart, Amar'e for his athleticism, Jason Richardson for his incredible shooting, Alvin Gentry for his coaching and Steve Nash for being all things Steve Nash.

They didn't get the memo...

Here are a few thoughts going into Game 5:

Alvin Gentry is doing a hell of a job! Down 2-0 after two blowouts, with everyone already planning for a Celtics-Lakers rematch, the Suns looked bad, nah they were just awful. Gentry got the Suns to believe that they're system will eventually turn the series around. Just keeping their heads held high after two thorough defeats is amazing enough, but to turn the entire series in their favor... clearly he's the difference-maker in the series. Conversely the Lakers stopped believing in the Triangle as soon as the Suns broke out the zone defense. Triangle guys continue to emphasize that this offense works perfectly against zone defenses with the cuts and spacing... except the Lakers guards haven't bought into that idea one bit. Gentry picked up the Suns off the floor, gave them confidence, convinced them that they can hang with the Lakers and took control of this series all in one week's time.

The Lakers are so damn frustrating!  Everyone watching knows what LA needs to do to win this series.  The Lakers coaches, the players themselves, even the fans all know... use the size advantage and attack from the inside-out in the Triangle, don't shoot too many threes knowing that long rebounds can lead to fastbreak points and stay at home on the Suns pick-and-roll schemes, no need to double team, just stay at home.  Everyone knows this.  EVERYONE!!!!

Yet here we are with the Lakers getting stymied by a zone defense and jacking up 30 threes a game.  This is exactly what the Suns wanted: to seduce the Lakers into a three point contest and run and gun all over the place. Instead of controlling the pace and working the ball inside, the Lakers guards lose patience and belief in their system. Basketball can be such a simple game, long shots equal long rebounds and leak-out points for the Suns. Early shots in the shot clock also equal rebounds and leak-out points for the Suns. Poor ball movement leads to turnovers and also leak-out points for the Suns.

Also, what happened to the scrambling defense that shut down the Suns late in game 2? The Suns are the best three point shooting team in the league and you continue to leave them WIDE OPEN? REALLY?  Stay at home and let Nash and Amar'e get theirs.  Game 3 was very winnable despite Stat's HUGE scoring output.  The Suns are VERY dangerous when they get balanced scoring.  Stay at home!

Are the Suns Kobe's and Phil Jackson's nemesis?  In 2006, the Suns were the first team to ever eliminate Phil Jackson in the first round.  Also in 2006, the Suns were the first team to eliminate a Phil Jackson squad with a 3-1 series lead.  After losing to the Suns in 5 games in 2007, Kobe went off on the Lakers organization in frustration and asked to be traded.  The Suns crazy multi-angled pick and roll offense seem to confuse the Lakers defensive principles.  They switch and rotate off the initial pick and leave too many perimeter shooters wide open... and now they're hitting them.  The Lakers move closer and closer to their third elimination by the Suns in five years.  Nemesis anyone?

Jordan Farmar, it's time to go.  Farmar has done nothing to improve his game over the past 2 years.  He no longer sees the court well, he no longer has a feel for the pace of the game and he no longer runs the damn offense.  Seriously, feed the post!!!

In 2007, we were impressed with Jordan Farmar's youth and confidence.  We all agreed when Phil Jackson started him over Smush Parker in the playoffs against Phoenix in 2007.  He was brash but the right collection of composure and heart.  He earned every bit of praise that year.  In 2 or 3 years, he was the perfect successor when Derek Fisher retires.  WAS is the operative word.  Somewhere last season Farmar lost his feel for the game.  His passes are lazy, he gambles too much on defense, he takes waaaaay too many ill-advised threes and he forgot how to feed the post.  Not good for a player with a contract extension on the line.  The Suns have completely destroyed Farmar in this series... it's time to go.

Game 5 outlook...  I'll be honest, I'm not too confident going into this game.  The Lakers really should have closed out on the Suns in a very winnable game 3.  They didn't get that killer instinct (read: Odom played like an ass).  Now the Suns offense is running on all cylinders as role players are hitting shots they were bricking in games 1 and 2.  They're extremely confident and can smell the Finals right around the corner.  People are breaking out stats like the Lakers are 18-0 all-time in home Game 5's when tied 2-2. Or that they're 8-0 in Game 5's over the past three seasons. The Suns destroyed a few of those type of stats back in 2006. To me they're just empty numbers.

Game 5 will be won on the Lakers defensive end of the floor.  Will they get out and contest the jumpers with urgency?  41 points in the second quarter of game 4 is embarrassing.  I don't care that the Suns were literally hitting all their threes, you should never give up that many points in a playoff game!  All the talk has been about the Suns shutting down the Triangle with their vaunted zone defense.  Nope... it's the defense stupid and the Lakers aren't playing it.

Zone is a junk defense!  The Lakers lack of execution is making it look like the modern day 40 Minutes of Hell.  It's a junk defense that can easily be solved if the Lakers get penetration in the soft spots.  Flash Gasol to just inside the freethrow line and feed him the ball (unless you're Jordan Farmar, who jacks up another three instead).  The defense has to commit from either the low block, exposing the baseline to a cutter or the guards have to drop down, leaving someone like Kobe open for a 17-foot jumper.  Also Gasol can reverse the ball, creating an open mid-ranger jumper.  Or the Gasol can drop down a little lower, draw two defenders and pass to a cutter.  It's really easy to attack a zone if you have bigs like Gasol and Odom who are great passers.  The key is for the guards (not named Farmar) to have the confidence to feed the post and attack from inside out.  It's a junk defense... no team has ever won a title running the zone. 

Is Game 5 the last Lakers home game of the season?  The last game Fisher plays at Staples Center?  Will the defending champs rally? 

Lakers - Suns... A Quick Prediction

By Craig Kwasniewski

Straight to the point: Lakers in Five. And now some unanswered questions about the series:

1 - Wait a second, you just took the Lakers in five. How is that possible when so many "experts" are taking the Suns?

Yeah how is that possible? After all the Suns are the hottest team, they beat the high and mighty Spurs and hey... the Suns play defense. I know this is crazy but is there a slight chance the Spurs we're overrated? I mean they were the number 7 seed. And they did have season-long chemistry problems with Richard Jefferson, their BIG off-season acquisition. Oh and did I mention they were old and broken? But see that's just insane to say such a thing...the Spurs were made for the postseason, just see how they destroyed the Mavericks in the first round. This is who they are, well coached, talented and savvy....Except ONLY on paper.

Now for reality: The Spurs beat a flawed Mavs team who still didn't figure out their rotations or their best five players in crunch time. The faster, more healthy, deeper and more motivated Suns the proceeded to roll the Spurs 4-0. And they play defense! So OF COURSE they can hang and possibly beat the Lakers.

See what I just did?

2 - Don't the Suns play defense?

Yeah this is the most hilarious thing this postseason. (Well obviously next to LeBron getting knocked out literally days after many pompous writers chided anyone who dared have an independent opinion on the MVP award... HOW DARE THEY!) The Suns play defense, they play defense... THE SUNS PLAY DEFENSE!!!

This is a borderline Fox News talking point. I'm expecting The Daily Show to put together 27 clips of everyone telling me the Suns play defense. Yeah and that yard of bricks slows down cars at the Indianapolis 500. Yes, these aren't the Mike D'Antoni era Suns, they actually step in front of dribble penetration and may put a hand in the face but let's face it, you're not seeing the 1989 Pistons, 1992 Bulls or the Riley Knicks.

Defense is very much a relative term here and please spare me the stats off the two previous flawed opponents. The Spurs were old and broken and the Blazers were just broken. It's not like the Suns locked down on D the full 48 minutes and broke both teams. Spare me the talking points.

3 - But ESPN guys are taking the Suns?

Yeah and they also really, really, really like Steve Nash and the old-guy-with-his-last-shot-at-a-title storyline. The media drools over this stuff...it's pure amateur hour and quite frankly lazy journalism.  They're not picking the Suns, they're rooting for the Suns.

Oh and don't underestimate the backlash to the backlash from Nash's two MVP trophies. There seems to be a lot of "see he's really that good!!!!" reactions the past two weeks. Especially when people started to realize the past few years that the MVP's were very much a product of timing and an offense that seriously inflated his stats.

But whatever, keep pulling for Nash... it least this beats 8 months of Brett Favre cheering from the media.

4 - Enough bitching, why are the Lakers going to win in five?

Size, coaching and talent.

Size - The Lakers are the biggest team still alive in the playoffs.  I say that because the Cavs were built to beat both LA and Orlando.  As I saw on Christmas Day, the Cavs were the only team to effectively match and potentially exceed at all five positions.  They're gone and the Lakers are left towering over the rest of the field.  If they control the pace (something that they did in 2006, but just didn't have the talent to finish out and get by Phoenix), they win the series... easily.  The Suns know they have to seduce the Lakers into jacking a lot of threes, which in turn create long rebounds and fastbreaks.  The Lakers know a mid-paced game (high 90's) is the right tempo.  There's no need to slug it out like 2006, but there's also no need to run and gun from three.  Just post up their FIVE legit threats over and over and run the Triangle from the inside out and the Lakers will be fine.

Coaching - Alvin Gentry has done a hell of a job getting the Suns to believe in themselves and their system, but this is Phil Jackson.  Say what you want about always having talent but there's something to be said about Phil Jackson teams always pulling out close games.  People call it fortune or talent, but they always seem to come out ahead is VERY tight games (Game 6 at OKC, Game 3 at Utah).  He gets his players in the right frame of mind so when sphincters get tight, the Lakers seem to carry that extra level of concentration and pull out the close ones.  Jackson also knows the key to this series (pace and patience) and will keep the Lakers focused throughout the series.

Talent - 1 - 12 the Suns are deeper, but 1 - 7 the Lakers are more talented.  Maybe Phoenix can expose the Lakers mediocre bench in the 2nd and 3rd quarters, but at the end of the day (or game) the Lakers have the games best closer in Kobe.  But they also have the postseason's best power forward (Gasol has easily been playing his best basketball since joining the Lakers in 2008).  Jason Richardson has been having the postseason of his life but now he'll have to match up with Kobe on both ends.  There's a reason he's averaged just over 8 points a game in the 4 regular season games against LA. Working on both ends of the floor takes a lot out of your offensive game (just look at what happened to Pierce after defending LeBron, people were assuming injury and age got to him... nope, just 48 minutes of Hell... I mean LeBron).  And Grant Hill may hold his own, but let's be honest, if your best defender was once  superstar on the 1997 Detroit Pistons, you may have a problem.

Really, I'm shocked how people can see this any other way.  I know a week off allows us all to over analyze things but really this is a match-up nightmare for Phoenix.  But these are the residual effects of overrating the Spurs and rooting for "the old guy."

Lakers in FIVE.

Don't miss the NBA picks to finish off your year of NBA handicapping on a positive note.

LeBron on Rondo? 4 Reasons Why That's a Bad Idea

By Craig Kwasniewski

Hey well he IS the MVP and as THE MVP, you SHOULD save your teams collective arses.... but not this way. LeBron wanting to defend Rajon Rondo on for game 5 is a bad idea. No actually it's a stupid idea and I have four reasons why: 

1 - LeBron's not that great of an on-the-ball defender to contain Rondo from the get go. There's a huge differemce between locking down a defender one-on-one in latter moments of a game versus going at him the entire 48. Does LeBron have the ability to go at Rondo every single possession? Is he willing to pick him out right at the change of possession and shadow him the full court for the entire game? I've seen LeBron pick his spots and chose to shut down his man in spurts, but it's a different mentality and pacing to continue that the whole game. LeBron's a freak on nature on offense, but does he have the necessary defensive mindset? 

2 - Cleveland uses LeBron as a roving shot blocker, this changes their entire defensive scheme. A funny thing happened along the way of all those highlight-chasing blocks. NOBODY wants to be on ESPN being on the receiving end. The Cavs put LeBron on the weakest defender and utilize him as a roving shot-blocker and it works. Did you see how every Celtics' drive has their players' head on a swivel expecting a block? I literally can't stand the play because it's so fundamentally wrong, but it works.  It gets the crow pumped and the opposition freaked out. That's not happening if LeBron is on Rondo. 

3 - Hey there's that guy Paul Pierce. LeBron and Pierce have been matched up most of the first four games and Pierce is obviously paying for it. Equal parts LeBron's defense, defending LeBron and wear and tear Paul Pierce is nowhere near the player that was the 2008 Finals MVP. He looks tired, old and lost. BUT...he's still got a great game left and the Celtics still call his number down the stretch. Anthony Parker isn't strong enough for Pierce, and Mo Williams is too small. I can see Pierce getting back into the flow of the game with LeBron on Rondo. The last thing the Cavs need is a hot/confident Pierce with a Game 5 on the line. 

4 - Game 3. The Cavs rolled the Celtics because LeBron came out aggressive on the offensive end and the entire roster fed off his energy. Actually is was more than a roll, it was the worst home playoff defeat in that storied franchise's history.  This ain't about Rondo's dominance. The Cavs have won before with Rondo putting up some fierce numbers. No, this is about how much the Cavs feed off LeBron's offense. Quite simply, use the exact gameplan from Game 3 and the Cavs should win easily. 

Cleveland is too good to panic right now. This is what separates championship teams from the rest of the pack, the ability to weather these moments. Yes, Rondo had a monster Game 4 to even up the series but the key was that the Big Three did not. Let Rondo get his but more importantly, LeBron NEEDS to get his. If two of the Big Three (or maybe a Sheed) get untracked tonight, the Cavs are in serious trouble.  Stick to what got you here and you'll be fine.

Lakers Barely Hold on to Beat the Jazz in Game 1

By Craig Kwasniewski 

Nice of the Lakers to "grant" us an exciting Game 1 by completely scrapping a successful offensive game plan most of the second half (ummm I believe they call it the Triangle) to barely beat Utah 104-99. 

Here are a few observations from my seat high up in Section 316: 

That game should NOT have been this close. Let's be honest here the Lakers are a terrible match-up for the Jazz.  LA's length in the front court causes problems for the smallish Boozer and Ronnie Millsap. Utah's thorn in the Lakers side was Okur forcing Bynum or Gasol to step out and defend the three.  Well Okur's gone and his replacement Fesenko is big but slow and nailed to the paint, allowing Bynum and Gasol to clog the lanes a keep Boozer from attacking the offensive glass.  Oh and did I mention the Jazz don't have anyone to defend Kobe?  Forget Kirilenko's injury, when healthy he wasn't able to stop Kobe. The Jazz have never had anyone to stop Kobe.  Really Deron Williams is Utah's only advantage (well that and the Lakers boredom) and he's not dropping 40 points and 20 dimes anytime soon.

This is just a bad match-up for the Jazz.  But they are well-coached, disciplined and talented enough to make this a 6 game series.  

What happened to the Triangle in the 2nd half?  Did you see the backdoor cuts from Artest and Odom in the first half?  Yes.  Did you see all the easy baskets after the ball was worked around the perimeter?  Yes.  Did you see the Lakers pounding the ball, dribbling around in the first half?  No.  That's what we in the business refer to as the Triangle Offense.  For a second I actually believed that Ron Artest finally got the offense.  Watching him slash down the lane and get the feed off Gasol was a thing of beauty.  This is why NBA higher-ups always thought Gasol was the perfect fit for the Lakers.  His court vision, patience and intelligence fit perfectly in the Triangle.  Did you see the no-look behind-the-back bounce pass to Bynum for a dunk? (BTW - it's didn't count because of a foul but it got a loud "Ohhhhh!!!" from the 300-level)  The Lakers spread the floor and initiated the offense from inside out.. in ONLY the first half.  And for much of the first half the Lakers actually looked the part of defending champs.

Ahh but then the 2nd half rolled in... Dribble, dribble, dribble, fade-away... dribble, dribble, dribble, fade-away.  Part of it was the Jazz bigs forcing Gasol and Bynum out of the low post (more on that later) but a huge part was the Lakers guards simply not initiating the offense from the inside.  As Phil Jackson would say, the team lost their direction in the 3rd quarter.  And it spilled over onto the defensive end as the Lakers couldn't get a stop.  What's so frustrating with the 2010 Lakers is how quickly they revert to bad habits with too much dribbling and too many threes.  It's obvious they know how to win, but like a rebellious teenager they refuse and want to do it their way.  And only when their backs are up against a wall, like say 5 minutes left with the Jazz leading, do the Lakers finally collect themselves and do it the right way.

Good Kobe saved bad Kobe. Kobe took over down the stretch getting clutch jumpers from his sweet spots near the freethrow line and just out at the short 17. But it was bad Kobe that maybe forced good Kobe to save the day. Late in the 2nd quarter he got into a little one-on-one tussle with CJ Miles and let the refs get to him. Kobe bristled that Miles was aloud to body him around and lost his focus. Predictibly he tried to respond and took the game right at Miles, trying to force the refs to call something. They did... *TWEET*...Offensive foul. A comfortable double digit lead went bye-bye as the Jazz took some momentum into the half with Kobe now in foul trouble. 

But again, Kobe saved the day offensively and won the game down the stretch. But unlike the 2nd quarter Kobe let the game to slow down and attacked the defense with poised patience. Meaning, he got the ball on the wing, waited to see how the defense set up, sized up his man and took to ball right to his comfort spots, nailing jumper and getting to the rim with relative ease.  (Though it didn't hurt that the Jazz decided not to double him on the perimeter and force him to pass the ball off.)

Do we need to start MVP chants for Gasol? Phil Jackson thinks so...25 points, 12 rebounds and a playoff career-high 5 blocks... and he made ALL of his freethrows!!! If this were fútbol "they" would say Gasol is in good form. His game is peaking at the right time, especially with several Lakers injured or temporarily disappeared (that's you Odom!!). Boozer isn't going to be attacking the offensive glass in this series. Gasol's defense is forcing Boozer to work very hard for his points, forcing him into fade-aways that take his monentum from the offensive glass.  

Utah's bigs turned the game around on defense. It started slowly in the second quarter but the Jazz's bigs bodied Gasol, Bynum and Odom out of the lane, keeping the from posting down low. Slowly over time the Lakers bigs got discouraged from all the physical play. Suddenly Gasol's getting the ball 12 feet from the basket and forcing shots.... SHORT!  Plus when the Lakers did get the ball low, the Jazz doubled off Artest (and why not after all he is the WORST three point shooter in the playoffs), frustating the Lakers bigs into contested shots and turnovers. Utah's defensive approach was patient very much like an NFL team that sticks with the run.  As time passed (and possibly with the benefit of the short turn-around) the Lakers bigs just didn't seem interested in fighting to get low.  I expect more of this in game 2.

Ron Artest... just one thing here... STOP SHOOTING THREES!!!!  Seriously, the way he worked in the offense in the first half I thought, "Hey' he's finally getting this!!!"  But late in the 4th quarter, with the Jazz defense daring him to shoot the three (umm because he's like 1-918 this postseason)... there he goes again, firing one up from downtown... and like downtown LA on a weekend... no life.  STOP SHOOTING THREES!!!!

Durant Had Nothing and Everything to do with Shutting Down Kobe

By Craig Kwasniewski 

It wasn't his length, it wasn't his hands, it wasn't his footwork, it's wasn't defensive positioning, it wasn't THAT block but it was all Kevin Durant in shutting down Kobe late late on the way to a 101-96 win for Oklahoma City. Kevin Durant the future, Kevin Durant the league's leading scorer, Kevin Durant the humble leader of the team of the 2010's. The Kevin Durant that Kobe, in his mind, has to challenge head on. 

Lakers fans are familiar with this Kobe Bryant, the one who gets caught up in the one-on-one alpha dog battle for supremacy. Never mind the score or the situation, if you challenge Kobe he'll size you up and go right back at you. Normally saved for a random December game against the likes of Dwyane Wade, we saw THAT Kobe tonight and the Lakers blew a golden opportunity to kill a young and inexperienced team and possibly sweep the Thunder. I'll be frank... 

This loss was solely on Kobe! 

I hate saying that considering all the wins he got the Lakers over the years, but with all the greatness and clutch moments you get a game like tonight. This is the price of Kobe, being the ultimate competitor... correction being THE ultimate competitor in the NBA, he'll always take a challenge head on. This is who he is. This is the person that makes the player. The only problem is that this player cost the Lakers a playoff game tonight. 

Stats and shot charts won't tell the story. Watch the game again. Late in the 4th, Scott Brooks for some reason put Kevin Durant on Kobe. A confusing (Durant never defends Kobe) yet brilliant move by the 2009-10 coach of the year. But Brooks saw a fatigued Kobe and put a VERY long and athletic Durant on him late. Maybe he knew Kobe always had trouble against length. Just look back at the 2008 Finals with James Posey or the 2007 first round against Shawn Marion (even 2006 Marion defended Kobe just enough in Game 6 to save the Suns season), Kobe challenged those two and came up short. Scott Brooks earned his COY award tonight with that move.  Well played... well played. 

So what happened? Kobe took Durant on every possession down the stretch. Forget that Bynum was being fronted and was prime for a lob and dunk. Forget that Pau Gasol had a brilliant offensive game for the first three quarters. Gasol seemed to have figured out the Thunder's defensive schemes and found the right spaces on the floor, scoring at the right times. Oh and did I mention he had a myriad of highlight plays including a sky-high runner, a sweet tip-in and even a (wait for it) message sending dunk (well as much of a message as Pau can softly send... more like a whisper... but still a message). 

Kobe kept shooting and shooting. And a once dominant lead disappeared and the Thunder rode their energetic crowd and all their XXXXXL blue shirts to victory (wow how crazy, a red state is a little on the plus size!).

Kobe will bounce back for Game 4. He's smart enough to see the error in his ways. What bothers me (and should bother him) is that he caught caught up in the mano-a-mano battle with Durant instead of playing within himself.  He should have found Bynum and Gasol down low, he should have pulled Odom to the side for a pep talk and he should have led his TEAM to victory.  

Save the alpha dog battles for the regular season or the trophy presentation and not in the middle of a playoff game.

PS - Oh and don't think I didn't forget about you Lamar!  Last season it took until the Western Conference Finals before you joined the Lakers.  They need you sooner, feel free to play.

PS2 - And the Thunder got EVERY call.  This was expected. Stern is HUGE friends with their owner Cletus Johnson and with Durant as the superstar of the future I'm not surprise to see some "home cooking" tonight. But the calls were so one-sided that it actually affected the Lakers defensive aggression in the 3rd quarter.  They stopped closing the lanes on drives because the Thunder got freethrows on EVERY drive.  And OKC is smart enough to take advantage. 

That said, the Lakers still win if Kobe didn't get into it with Durant.

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