Five Predictions for the Season

By Craig Kwasniewski

In lieu of a 10,000 word NBA Preview post, let's simplify it and bring you five predictions:

1. The Miami Heat will win 46 games: Since the Orlando Magic days, Shaq has only given a full effort in two regular seasons, 1999-2000 in Jackson's first year and in 2004-05 to prove Kobe wrong. Now that he's won a title away from Kobe, where will Shaq find his motivation? I see him playing 60-65 games this year with several mysterious injuries. D-Wade, at 24-years old, is complaining about fatigue from the World Championships and Pat Riley is coddling rushing to the defense of his superstar.

Miami won a championship even though they couldn't hang with any of the contenders in the regular season. So why bother trying? All they need to do is make the playoffs and Stern will handle the rest play at the level they brought to last year's postseason.

2. You will read ten "Carmelo Anthony is a great guy!" articles right up to the All-Star break: Just like last season, Nike, the NBA and Team Anthony will bring playoff level politicking to prove that Carmelo Anthony is just a misunderstood youth and should start in the All-Star game.

This is all while Denver will struggle along at a .500 level of play. This doesn't mean that Melo hasn't improved (he was one of the best players on Team USA), I just see a Hollywood-type media rush to save his image and put him up there with the likes of LBJ and Wade. He may be the best regular season clutch player of the three. Note that I didn't say postseason... I'm not forgetting his playoff disappearance.

3. Chicago is not the best team in the East: Just because the Bulls acquired Ben Wallace doesn't mean that they are immediate title contenders. Who's their low-post threat? As much as the NBA is becoming a full court, high-octane league, you still need that low post threat that draws defensive awareness for the playoffs. Chicago did improve their rebounding and defense with Wallace, but now they're playing 4-on-5 on the offensive end of the court.

At the end of it all, they are the third best team in the East behind Miami (which will crank it up in May) and Detroit.

4. LeBron will win the MVP award: This is the biggest no-brainer in the league. Hell, the press wanted to give LeBron the MVP award for just playing one great month last season. Don't get me wrong, behind Kobe and Nash, LBJ is probably the third best player in the league. What people forget is that before last April, LeBron was missing clutch shot after clutch shot. All it took was that incredible Wade-LeBron game and suddenly we're talking Bird-Magic all over again. Let's just see how the season pans out, even though the press has already cast their vote.

5. San Antonio will be Champs in 2006-07: This is such a set-up for the Spurs. With all the talk being about the Chicago, Miami, LeBron, Phoenix and Dallas, the Spurs will sit quietly bidding their time, winning game after game. Duncan should be well rested and the depth is still there. Just remember, they were a REALLY bad decision by Ginobili from returning to the NBA Finals. As much as this pains me, I see the Spurs beating Miami in the NBA Finals 4-2.

Comments

[John]

LeBron had the highest FG% in the NBA in the last two minutes of games decided by 5 points or less or something. Like by far - the "not clutch" thing was because he passed the ball instead of taking the last shot. It's all garbage anyway.

[Brett]

The way that Spurs Mavs playoff series went down to an OT Game 7, it's ridiculous to try and predict a team to come out of the West.

I'll go DAL or SA against DET in the Finals...too much regular season tanking by MIA to be ready for June, and too much hunger from the core four of DET.

[coach]

these are all pretty safe precictions ' cept the last one .
for the sake of uniformity , , you shd. restate no.5 as follows :

the san antonio spurs will be as boring as before .

[geebs]

tony parker is made of glass. tim duncan carries the team into the post season and is too tired to push any more. bowen and finley are a bit long in the tooth, manu is manu (would be a better soccer player w/ the flopping...) I don't think they'll get it done. Depends on who they play in the first round, but I'm thinkin first round exit for the spurs... Their time has come and gone, and they did what they could (including win championships) during that time.

[Jack]

I do think the Spurs will do well this year (and be REALLY boring doing it), win a smooth 60 games, and be in the WCF. But, that's where it will end. Phoenix is going to meet them there, and in a 04-05 rematch of titans. It will be epic. Then, Phoenix will race past Detroit in the finals in 6 games.

[dave]

san antonio will win the 2006-07 championship. that is the first thing i've read on this blog that has made any sense. you guys have finally come around.

made of glass? tony parker had more pts in the paint last year than any other point gaurd in the league. manu is manu? what does that even mean? tim duncan is a stud. he was hurt in the regular season. he wasn't tired in the playoffs, he played his f'in guts out. boring? that series with dallas (except for the 2 blow-outs) was some of the most entertaining basketball i've seen in years. i doubt any of you watch a single spurs game until the playoffs start.

kudos to dallas for getting it done, but it won't happen this year. the spurs are pissed and hungry. you have to admit san antonio and miami would've made for a better finals. shaq and duncan going at it. manu and d wade drawing charges on each other. tony parker smokin' j will. the spurs wouldn't have tanked 4 games in a row either.

[JenM]

Nice post Dave but almost everyone on the sports blogs hates on the Spurs, they are boring, whiners, etc etc.

I agree with you though and think as usual they laid low, worked on their game w/the new players and are going to get it done this year.