The Association

5 Predictions for the 2008-09 Season

by Craig Kwasniewski

The Association Blog is up a ready to go for the 2008-09 season! I'm rested, I'm rejuvenated and I'm just about over Game 4...

So let's get this thing rolling with 5 predictions for the 2008-09 season (BTW - for those of you keeping score at home, I was an embarrassing 2 of 5 in my predictions last season):

1 - Houston slightly edges out Philadelphia as most overrated. The easy pick for most overrated team is Philly. Elton Brand coming off a serious injury joining a team with zero perimeter shooting and a point guard notorious for being a great player on a bad team but a below-average player on a good one. That's an easy first round exit!

Nope, Houston wins the award for most overrated team of the season. Fresh off another yet another first round exit, destroying along the way all the good memories of that winning streak (seriously what was it: 17, 23, 87? I really don't know. All I know is I TOLD YOU SO!!!!!) the Rockets bring in Ron Artest.

Size up the rings, roll out the parade and drop a banner! Forget that the current dynamic duo is injury prone and have never advanced beyond the first round IN THEIR ENTIRE CAREER. Forget that their head coach while a good regular season coach is notorious for getting a case of sphincter-itis beyond April. Forget that the point guard should be running along side Tha Professor at Rucker Park instead of lining up against CP3, Deron Williams, Tony Parker and Steve Nash. Oh and forget that your NBA title hopes fall on the shoulders of Ron Artest.

2 - The Boston Icon Curse is VERY real! No I'm not talking about the quality of women from Beantown. The new curse involves the sporting icons from Boston. SNAP!!! Tom Brady blows out his knee, then POP!!! goes the Papi's wrist (along with a very clutch .186 in the postseason)... So which "icon" on the Celtics gets it? Obviously to everyone not named Paul Pierce (who's STILL thinks he's an elite player, though he somehow forgot all those "elite" seasons before Garnett bailed his ass out), a KG injury would severely hamper any shot at a repeat. Look I'm not wishing any injuries on the Celtics, but still....

3 - San Antonio's every other streak ends. If the pattern held to form the Spurs would be NBA champs in 08-09. They won titles in 02-03, 04-05 and 06-07 impressively with mid-February runs after coasting though the first half of the season. Manu's hurt, they lack that "it" energy guy they seem to always find and their veterans are O-L-D. The Spurs are at their best with Duncan resting through All-Star break riding Manu's energy through the first half. Now they have to hope Duncan has a full 82 games in him this year. I can't see it happening. We're two years away from the phrase, "Tim Duncan's corpse."

4 - LeBron James will win the MVP! Hard to believe but with all the Chris Paul love LeBron James is officially under the radar. It's like the NBA media is strictly monogamous, they can only drool on one guy a year. Last season they "dated" LeBron, then Kobe and CP3 now they're in a fully committed relationship with Paul and have issued an MVP Save the Date for May. Did they not see King James in the Olympics? The guy seems prime and ready for a massive season (like Jordan in 1987). Remember, the Cavs came a few minutes shy of knocking of the Celtics literally weeks after retooling their roster? Now LeBron gets a full season with this roster and he looks prime to take the MVP.

5 - Lakers will beat the Cavs in the Finals. Cleveland has the right pieces and more importantly the Celtics lost two HUGE components in James Posey and PJ Brown from last season's title. LeBron will prevail in a hard-fought 7 game series over Boston to earn a place in the Finals.

The Lakers will struggle early on trying to fit Andrew Bynum into the same roster that won the Western Conference but things will start to turn around in December. They have the deepest team in the NBA, despite being crushed by Tom Thibodeau in the Finals (come-on we all know Doc did nothing) they still have one of the best coaches ever, they got a full preseason of Pau Gasol and oh and by the way, they still have the best closer in the NBA. Do they have that toughness necessary to win a title? Can they win with two 5's on the floor? Will Kobe hold up after a long and busy off season? Will Odom's and Bynum's contract situations be distracting? Will the Buss family hold together or will they unravel like is years past? This is LA, there's always drama and the Lakers seem to rise above it. Their depth will allow Kobe to rest up and get them through the annual rash of injures that come in early January. And they will win the 2008-09 NBA Title!

5 Predictions for the 2007-08 Season

By Craig Kwasniewski

In lieu of a typical bloated NBA preview, here are a few things I think will happen this season:

1. Kobe will be traded to Chicago after December 15th. Wow, another Kobe trade prediction... how original! Yeah but in this case, it *WILL* happen. Laker idiot, Jim Buss loves hustling white guys and Andres Nocioni's new contract prevents any deal before December 15th. I see some sort of deal of Tyrus Thomas, Andres Nocioni and Ben Gordon for Kobe Bryant. Luol Deng will NEVER get traded to the Lakers!!! All Bulls GM John Paxson has to do is wait for the Lakers to panic and lower their demands. Expect a panic from the Lakers especially with a difficult early schedule, Odom still being injured and with all the Kobe distractions.

2. The Celtics will *NOT* advance to the NBA Finals. First off, let me say that I love that the C's are relevant again. And big ups to Danny Ainge for having the balls to roll the dice on Big Three, Part Deux. That being said, the C's are still coached by Doc Rivers and have a second year, unproven player at the point. Much like the 1997 Houston Rockets, the Celtics glaring weakness at the point will eventually be their downfall in the postseason. Plus Rivers will find a way to "Doc up" the season, because he's still the worst head coach in the NBA. Just because Garnett is playing for the C's doesn't mean Rivers suddenly got a prescription to smart pills. Once Rivers is fired, the C's will win it all... in 2008-09.

3. Yao Ming will be exposed as a fraud. Rich Adelman's high-post offense requires a big with high basketball IQ, who's a good passer and a has decent shooting range. I can't see Ming fitting into the fluid, heavy-backdoor cutting offense that Adleman runs. So expect another first round exit in the postseason for the guy. How many coaches do we have to go through to realize that just because he gets a bajillion web hits on NBA.com/china does NOT make him an All-Star?

4. You will be carpet bombed wil a TON of "Melo's finally getting it" stories... and Denver still loses in the first round. The Nike media machine will be in full force with Melo this season.... again. Expect a ton of "Melo and Karl are getting along better than ever" and "Melo's been a great leader" stories as the season goes along. But just like all of his previous playoff efforts, a healthy dose of George Karl choking, Kenyon Martin getting injured, Marcus Camby getting hurt and Melo getting frustrated will lead to yet another disappointing season in Denver.

5. The Phoenix Suns win the NBA Title. Here's a fact: the Spurs NEVER repeat as champs. Maybe it's the guilt of having 2 asterisks to their titles or they get complacent, but they never repeat. Dallas is in emotional shambles. So that leaves it to the Phoenix Suns. They were a few poorly officiated games from winning it last season and with Nash's leadership and another season of basically the same core of players, I see the Suns having the drive (and veteran depth with Hill) to win it all. Suns over the Pistons 4-2 in the 2007-08 NBA Finals.

Somebody Doesn't Know That LeBron Is In the NBA Finals

by Brett Edwards

As Matt Watson so eloquently put it this morning, Even David Blaine Can't Get Detroit Into the NBA Finals. I thought I was the only one (outside of Detroit) that was hoping to see the Pistons and the Spurs in the Finals, but it looks like the person in charge of this page over at NBA.com had the same hopes. This page is still up, and (shockingly) doesn't feature LeBron James who, besides being the greatest player ever, is actually in the Finals.

Anyway, with the Finals starting tonight, it's prediction time. Long time readers of this site may be surprised to hear it, but I'm picking the Spurs to sweep. The Eastern Conference has been an abomination all season, and the Spurs are too good defensively to be beaten, even once, by a one man team like Cleveland.

This doesn't mean I'm rooting for the Spurs though (obviously), and I can't root for a team whose second best player this post-season is nicknamed "Boobie." But I will be watching and live-blogging the whole series, so feel free to harass me over at the FanHouse while I come up with new and exciting ways to rip on both of these teams.

Playoff Predictions: Conference Semifinals

By Craig Kwasniewski

Here's my quick predictions for the Conference Semifinals. Normally I'd throw down a paragraph cracking on the likes of Tony Longoria, the media willing to go third input from LeBron or the culture clash of the Warriors hitting the Salt Lake City "nightlife" but I just moved and I'm stuck writing this at some Starbucks while I wait for internet access at home. So here's my picks:

(5) Chicago Bulls vs. (1) Detroit Pistons: Detroit in six.

(6) New Jersey Nets vs. (2) Cleveland Cavaliers: Cleveland in seven.

(3) San Antonio Spurs vs. (2) Phoenix Suns: San Antonio in six.

(8) Golden State Warriors vs. (4) Utah Jazz: Utah in seven.

Playoff Preview: Western Conference

by Brett Edwards

Playoff Previews are literally everywhere right now, so this will mostly include the formality of getting our predictions down before the title run begins. Here we go, Western Conference style:

(1) DALLAS vs. (8) GOLDEN STATE: Henry at True Hoop said it best when it seems that Warriors fans are "just happy to be here." That is evidenced by the banner at the top of their site that reads:

"The playoff drought is over! We're in the PLAYOFFS!!!

Good job guys, but those three exclamation points are three more wins than the Warriors are getting in this series. Mavs SWEEP, 4-0.

Craig says: Mavs 4-1. The GS Warriors bandwagon is flying along... and I don't care. Dallas rolls after losing game 2 at home.

(2) PHOENIX vs. (7) L.A. LAKERS: I broke this one down over at The FanHouse, and it comes down to whether or not the Lakers can slow the tempo (like they did for thee games last year), and I don't think they can. Kobe is good for one Laker win, and that's it. Suns in 5.

Craig says: Suns 4-1

(3) SAN ANTONIO vs. (6) DENVER: The 'Melo/A.I. train has gathered plenty of steam towards the end of the season, just to have it crash into the proverbial mountain. The Nuggets whacked a bunch of nobodies, meanwhile the Spurs finished the season with the highest average margin of victory per game at over 8 points. What's impressive about that stat is the fact that the Spurs only average 98 points per game, so they've been doing it with defense. Spurs in 5.

Craig says: Spurs 4-2. Not really close, but AI has one monster game and the Spurs lead 3-1, but get bored.

(4) UTAH vs. (5) HOUSTON: Note to Jazz fans (are there really any of those?): Your team is a fraud. The Jazz are the only team in the West's top six with a losing road record. If you can't win on the road, you're not going very far in the playoffs. T-Mac gets his first post-season series win, in an easy six games. Rockets in 6.

Craig says: Hou 4-2. Utah's slide is telling (they're a distant 5th best in the west), but I still think they give HOU a run.

Thursday Hoops Preview

By Craig Kwasniewski

Just two weeks left in the season and tonight's double header features four of the top eight teams in the league. I was secretly hoping to see one of the blatantly tanking teams tonight just to hear Barkley bitch about them. Wasn't the whole concept of the draft lottery to prevent tanking? David Stern really needs to fix the lottery process, it's embarrassing to the league.

Anyway, back to tonight’s games (all times Pacific):

Miami at Cleveland (5:00 PM): D-Wade's not ready to return just yet. So instead of a dueling freethrow contest between Wade and LeBron, we'll actually get to see a basketball game tonight. Miami is rounding into playoff form and despite the predictably slow start, the Heat look like the second best team in the east. By the end of the season, Miami could lock up the three seed, clearing the way for a second round showdown with Cleveland (and David Stern's wet dream).

The talk out of Cleveland is LeBron's "injured" knee. LBJ missed Sunday's loss to Boston to rest the knee, but came back with a flourish a few days later. I don't see it as any problem tonight (but if LBJ misses a few clutch jumpers I guarantee he'll mention that he's not 100%), but with Shaq rounding into playoff form Miami wins 98-95.

Phoenix at San Antonio (7:30 PM): This is the "oh shit, San Antonio's still very good" game. As I wrote a few weeks ago:

Phoenix better watch out for San Antonio come playoff time. The Spurs are one of the few teams that won't get sucked into their run and gun style of play and their vets are getting a lot of rest this season.

(I've always wanted to blockquote myself.)

While the media's been gushing about Phoenix and Dallas all season, San Antonio's been resting their veterans and cruising to 58 wins and a three seed in the west. This would be a great time to throw out some Texas Hold 'em analogy about the Spurs waiting for the right hand to go all in, but I prefer Pai Gow Poker so I won't. Tonight, they split the four of a kind and San Antonio wins 107-102.

Thursday TNT Action

By Craig Kwasniewski

TNT returns to action tonight after a break from last week for the NCAA’s. Before we take a quick look at tonight’s games, how’s everyone’s bracket? Notice how the women are bombing in the office pools? The lack of any major upsets this year is killing the “best looking uniform” picks. My bracket died when my darkhorse Final Four pick of Washington State lost (I watched all of one college basketball game this year, what can you expect?).

Anyway, back to tonight’s games (all times Pacific):

Detroit at Chicago (5:00 PM): Hot off Sheed’s 62-foot jump shot (I’m not calling it a heave or throw because according to the Pistons’ homers, Sheed practices that shot. In fact, didn’t Flip draw up that play in the huddle? “Sheed you come off the curl and shoot it from halfcourt! Pistons on three!”) the Pistons are hoping that win carries over tonight. The flu bug has struck the Pistons and C-Webb, Dale Davis, and Richard Hamilton could all miss this game. Normally I'd say the Pistons win easily, but now it looks like a close one... Chicago beats Detroit 96-91.

Phoenix at Golden State (7:30 PM): This one should be fun, a total non-stop track meet. Golden State is playing for their playoff lives and are pretty good home team (25-11). Having already won the Pacific Division, the Suns are fighting off a little boredom, as they're getting ready for the playoffs. As we know, there's no team in the NBA that can beat the Suns at their pace, so Phoenix beats Golden State 115-109.

Thursday TNT Action (March Madness: Day 1)

By Craig Kwasniewski

Well here we are at the "beautiful" and "luxurious" Sahara Hotel surrounded by "hotties" left and right losing money in Keno at the "cafe." (I'd add more quotations as in "dancers" and "libations", but I think you get the point.) Part of the charm of March Madness in Vegas is staying at the old school dumps hotels. Every year since we started doing this thing, we've been watching the first round games at the Stardust Hotel. Sadly enough, they blew up "The Dust" last Tuesday (couldn't they wait just two more freakin' days?). So we took the next best dump cheap hotel place, the Sahara Hotel.

The Sahara brings the funk big time. The highlight was a tie between my burnt pancakes at 10:00 PM (who the hell burns pancakes???) and the wheelchair bound fat lady with one movable arm, pumping cigarettes and playing slots... good times. (My friend Dean, always the positive one, best summed up the room, "Hey at least they have new phones.")

Anyway, the NCAA games fire off in a few hours. Expect a first round March Madness diary from Vegas sometime later today. Until then, here's a quick peek at the NBA on TNT (all times Pacific):

Miami @ New Jersey (5:00 PM): Is Miami on every single Thurday night? It's almost like the schedulers at TNT knew that Shaq would be back from the Shaquries (fake injuries) and ready to go for the final stretch. Does anyone really want to see Miami in November in full mail-it-in mode? Me neither... this explains Miami Madness on TNT in March and April.

So does New Jersey even have a chance in this one? On paper they still have J-Kidd, Vinsanity and Jefferson, a formidible team... on paper. In reality, you have a motivated Heat gaining momentum with the playoffs around the corner with a reeling New Jersey team looking to earn the final spot in the weakened east.

With Shaq actually trying and Antoine Walker hitting game winners, the Nets have no chance tonight. Miami wins 94-83.

LA Lakers @ Denver (7:30 PM): Will the Lakers ever win again? Here's a bigger question; why the hell did I put down $$ for playoff tickets? At least there's a Laker worthy of an injury: Brian Cook went down with a twisted ankle last Tuesday and will miss the game. One down, Smush Parker to go.

Anyway, Luke Walton returns from extended vaginal inflammation and Lamar Odom will suit up with a torn labrum (ouch!). I see chemistry issues tonight. You can't miss so many games and expect instant success. Even though Denver has it's own issues (zero defense, a coach willing to throw his players under the bus, Carmelo Anthony chemistry problems) I see a close game with Denver winning 110-103.

Thursday Hoops Preview

By Craig Kwasniewski

The last Thursday night before the NBA takes a back seat to the NCAA Tournament. In less than a week, I'll be in Vegas watching 32 games in 48 hours... good times! Let's take a look at tonight's games (all times Pacific):

Chicago at Orlando (5:00 PM) - The Bulls got whacked 103-70 by Miami last night and hope to rebound with a better effort. I'm not going to use this as another reason to rip on Shaq, but I love how the media has jumped on the "Shaq is dominant again" bandwagon. Forget that he mailed in the entire first half of the season, he's had five good games... HE IS THE GREATEST!!!!

Anyway, Orlando starts off the season on fire (14-5 on December 4th) and were the talk of the east. Since then, they've gone 15-28 and are sitting in the eight spot with rumors of coach Brian Hill getting fired if they miss the playoffs. I never considered them the best of the east, but with Dwight Howard on his way to startdom they should be at the 4th or 5th spot. I know that Grant Hill had his annual injuries, but with the east being so weak, the Magic shouldn't have fallen so fast.

The Bulls look very average these days. Until they acquire a low post threat, this team is a second round elimination at best. They lost to Orlando 94-87 late in February. I think a different team shows up tonight and they rebound from last night's loss. Chicago wins 96-91.

San Antonio at Sacramento (7:30 PM) - The Spurs are on a tear, winning 10 in a row veteran style, coasting through games and kicking it up a notch at the right moments. With Mike Bibby and Kevin Martin (the Western Conference player of the week) playing at a high level, the Kings are playing a lot better the past few weeks. The recent Artest situation may help the Kings as it was rumored that Bibby and Artest didn’t get along well.

I’m anxious to see how the Spurs defend Martin. His quickness off the dribble and body control after contact gets him a lot of And-1’s. Can Bowen body him out of the lane or is he too old to keep up with K-Mart?

I see this as a close game with Ginobili being the difference-maker (the Kings don’t have anyone to match up with him). San Antonio wins 105-98.

Thursday Hoops Preview

By Craig Kwasniewski

Tonight's TNT schedule is suffering from Monday Night Football-itis, meaning the schedule was made way before the season started and we're stuck with a potential blow-out and a dud. Let's take a look at tonight's games (all times Pacific):

Cleveland at Dallas (5:00 PM) - The Mavs are coming off an undefeated February and have only lost two games in all of 2007. Phoenix had a similar run a few weeks ago, but what impresses me more is that the Mavs are streaking during one of the more distracting months of the season. You have All-Star break and the nagging injuries start to set in (Phoenix). Are they peaking too soon? Hardly, this is a team on a mission, reminding me of the 1996 Bulls and the 2000 Lakers.

On paper, this game seems unfair. Not only are Dallas on fire, but they get to host an Eastern Conference paper tiger. But lost in the whole "Lebron has mailed in the season" talk was that he usually takes his game up a notch after All-Star break. (Last season before All-Star break people were talking about LBJ's failure down the stretch in games. Then he had an incredible finish culminating with an awesome Sunday duel with Wade and suddenly people were talking MVP.) I see LeBron having a good game, but Dallas wins 105-98.

LA Clippers at Seattle (7:30 PM) - The over/under for the number of times Barkley cracks on this game is 24. You have one team playing out the season and another recovering from a devastating injury. Seattle should follow the Celtics' lead and sit out their star players with Shaquries (fake injuries) and tank the rest of the season. All they need to do this offseason is fire their coach, re-sign Rashard Lewis and get healthy (Robert Swift) and they'll return to challenge for a playoff spot.

The Clippers can either rally behind the Livingston injury or mail in the season. With gamers like Cassell and Brand, I see the Clips putting together a run to move up to the 7th seed. Cassell's near the end of his career and I can't see him allowing the team to fall out of the race.

The Clippers beat Seattle last night 96-91 and I see them pulling a rare home-and-home sweep. The Clippers will observe Lawler's Law and win 108-96. Bingo!