By Craig Kwasniewski
Los Angeles (1) vs. Utah (8) - Maybe Jazz fans can weigh in, but I see the Jazz as a very dangerous 8-seed. The only difference between the previous two seasons and this year is that Utah got a TON of injuries (nobody played a full 82) and never seemed to get it going chemistry-wise. So what's to prevent the Jazz from coming out strong and making this a hard fought 6-game series like last season? Jerry Sloan can flat out motivate, they have one of the best floor leaders in D-Williams and have one of the best home-court advantages in the NBA. The downside is that Utah is terrible on the road and there's something "off" about this team (the Millsap/Boozer contract situation is the pink elephant in the room especially with cloudy future financially after Larry Miller died).
The Lakers looked bored after their VERY impressive back-to-back road wins over Boston and Cleveland. People seem to forget just how impressive those wins were considering they lost Bynum one week earlier, but the Lakers and especially Lamar Odom rallied and showed the league they were the clear favorites... then they fell asleep, occasionally flipping the switch like the back-to-back road wins at Houston and San Antonio. The Lakers biggest weakness and a burgeoning red flag is the point guard spot. Derek Fisher officially expired on 04-01-09 and Jordan Farmar lost his biggest asset, his confidence. Phil Jackson has been forced to play Shannon Brown big minutes the last five regular season game looking for any consistent play at the one spot. This could be a major storyline as the playoffs move on... but the Lakers are too deep up front, are too long and most-importantly Utah doesn't have anyone to stop Kobe. Lakers win 4-1.
New Orleans is one season away from firing Byron Scott... unfortunately putting him as a top contender for the Lakers spot after Phil Jackson's retires in 2010... causing me to tell the Lakers to fuck off when I get my season ticket renewal form.
Okay so I'm ahead of myself, but Chris Paul is learning several fact this year: NOLA isn't that deep, NOLA is keen on cutting costs and Byron Scott is a terrible head coach (the guy runs one single solitary play on offense... ONE!!!). CP3's incredibly stellar play down the stretch couldn't prevent NOLA's slide down to a seven seed and with Tyson Chandler hurting I can't see them getting passed Denver. Their offense is keyed on the moving screen Chandler sets at the top of the key, giving CP3 an open 15-foot jumper, an alley oop to Chandler when the defense rotates over or a kick-out three by Stojakovic. This is why I never understood the Chandler trade in the first place. Dollar-wise it might have made sense, but basketball-wise and most importantly CP3's happiness-wise it was foolish. Anyway, this series comes down to Chandler's health... Denver wins 4-2.
San Antonio (3) vs. Dallas (6) - I really like this series! You have two older franchises at the ends of their runs going at it one last time. I give Dallas a lot of credit for rallying late and moving up to the six seed. It's hard to give a coach of a six seed props but Rick Carlisle kept this team focused though the weird Stackhouse situation and Josh Howard becoming Vince Carter west with all those random injuries and inconsistent play (yes I'm bitter as he sabotaged my fantasy team). Along the way Jason Terry because the team's closer, Dirk carried the offensive load the first 3 1/2 quarters and Jason Kidd blended in enough and tied Steve Nash as the worst on the ball defensive player in the NBA.
The Spurs are the Spurs... even with Manu out for the rest of the season you'll get excellent coaching, quality play out of Duncan and good defense (but not as great as the title years, but better than most teams). Tony Parker is the difference-maker in this series. How will Dallas stop him? They can't and they won't... San Antonio wins 4-1.
Portland (4) vs. Houston (5) - Before we go any further, the Portland Tralblazers held a huge championship parade-like celebration BEFORE the start of the playoff. Nothing says "we're just happy to be here" more than a championship parade BEFORE the playoffs. Three days ago I was giddy that my favorite victim, the Houston Rockets, sank to a 5-seed and their annual first round elimination. But this parade celebration might change everything.
Portland has the right mix of talent and size and they have a possession-by-possession clutch player in Brandon Roy that every contender needs in the playoffs. Nate McMillan's a damn good coach and LaMarcus Aldridge is the league's most underrated power forward... all ingredients for a long playoff run except for two things: playoff experience and a key veteran (like a James Posey).
The Rockets don't have playoff experience either, with T-Mac injured they lack the go to guy and Rick Adelman has made a career out of choking in the playoffs. But I'm sure Daryl Morey will put together a long list of stats to distract us from one fact: the Rockets have not advanced in the playoffs since 1997. BUT THEY DO HAVE SHANE BATTIER... whatever. Portland would have stumbled against San Antonio and even Utah, but they should be fine against Houston. Despite the pre-playoff celebration, Portland wins 4-3.
Portland has been surprise package with their high octane offense and while the Rockets will us their main asset which is defense to offset them. So it could a close call here but I'm hoping for Houston pull it out this time and end their first round jinx.
I doubt the Spurs have anything left but maybe they could defeat the Mavs but that's it for them. No Manu Mo Problem. At this point, I don't see anyone capable of seeing off the Lakers.
Overall the 2009 season is expected to be the most exciting ever in recent years and I can't wait for it to began. For me personally as an Albiceleste supporter, things are not looking good but we'll just have to wait and see.
Oh yes! I've also published my own version (not really mine but a friend name Dave from the NBA Round Table) and would like you to give us your view as well .
Posted by: john | April 17, 2009 at 10:18 PM
Rick Adelman is worth at least two playoff losses for his team.
He's like Colonel Cargill in Catch -22.
Posted by: yogi | April 18, 2009 at 03:26 AM
man, you really impressed me with the soccer reference, must be your polish roots influence that made you even heard about champions league:)
Posted by: michal.bulhakov | April 18, 2009 at 12:53 PM
Everyone who pays attetion to the nba playoffs will know that even if your not a fan of the lakers The LA Lakers will make it to the nba finals once again led by Kobe Bryant, But it is uncertian that the Lakers will actualy win a title this year because looking at the stadings of the 08-09 season the lakers will probably face the Boston Celtics(if they can make a hige run with out KG) or the Cleveland Cavs (will probably be the match up of the finals). Even though Lakers bet both teams this year Clevlend still hold the home court advantige threw out the playoffs and the Lakers last year when they went to the FInals didn't have home court and loss and this year facing cleveland they need home court which they dont have so the title will go to the east once again
Posted by: Jordan | April 18, 2009 at 01:09 PM
The first round:
Laker will advance
Portland will advance
Spurs will advance
Denver will advance
Conf Semi
Lakers will bet Paortland 4-2 series
Spurs will bet Denver 4-3 Series
Conf Finals
Lakers will bet Spurs 4-2
Posted by: Jordan | April 18, 2009 at 01:12 PM