The Association

Thoughts on the Draft Day Trades

By Craig Kwasniewski

I'm not really up on all the players drafted yesterday since the only NCAA hoops I watched all year was from the Las Vegas Hilton on the first weekend of March Maddness... Basically my knowledge on the college scene falls somewhere between Stu Scott and Rick Kamla (or Vanilla Scott as I like to call him).

So here are my thoughts on the trades from the past 48-hours:

1 - Shaq to Cleveland:  Props to the NBA media for not overreacting and proclaiming the Cavs the 2010 NBA Champs. Props to Danny Ferry for going "all in" and taking a chance on Shaq, hoping to convince LeBron to re-sign in 2010.  And props for Donald T. Sterling 2.0 for completely ruining one of the NBA's greatest franchises and killing Steve Nash's final years as a player.  This trade has way more questions than answers. 

Will Shaq play second fiddle to the league's biggest alpha dog?  He thinks Kobe was bad but LeBron runs EVERYTHING in Cleveland.  His teammates, his gags, his front office... this is LeBron's team.  From Penny to Kobe to Wade... all three All-Stars were young and didn't have the locker room pull that LeBron has.  Kobe was stubborn and always battling Shaq to be THE number one, but Shaq always had the Lakers roster and coaching staff on his side.  Shaq is clearly the outsider in Cleveland, will his ego accept being a number #2?

And don't tell me that he settled in with Phoenix as the #2!  Just one season in, the Suns were slowing things down and dumping to Shaq just like all the previous teams he played for.  Now we're hearing that Nash requested the Suns trade away Shaq.  He's 37 years old and he's never changed his demeanor as a player.  Why would he change now?

Will Shaq have patience for Mike Brown, the guy who was thoroughly out-coached by Mr. Master of Panic Stan Van Gundy?  As the Eastern Conference Finals showed us (and as I've been literally screaming for years!), the Cavs have one play in their offensive playbook.  Just one!  High screen and roll for LeBron where his options are: 1) step back for a three, 2) drive down the lane, 3) pass to the corner for a three, 4) hit the rolling big man to the hoop.  That's it!  But LeBron is so damn talented that he normally overcomes defenses (well expect when playing the Lakers, Orlando or Boston, but NOBODY seemed to remember this during the regular season DESPITE THE LAKERS SWEEPING THEM!!!)  Anyway, Mike Brown is CLEARLY the worst head coach that Shaquille O'Neal has played for (and yes that includes Terry Porter and Del Harris).

The Cavs now have their first low-post option since a pre-lockout Shawn Kemp in 1998.  Will Mike Brown add a second page to his offensive playbook and post up Shaq?  What happens when they face Orlando during a regular season game and start trailing?  Will Shaq DEMAND the ball during timeouts or will Mike Brown freeze up (like in the ECF's) and just ask LeBron to save them?  How soon before Shaq realizes the huge gap in ability between Mike Brown and Stan Van Gundy?

Does this trade make LeBron Tom Hagen?  Or is he Connie?  One of Shaq's best quotes was his comparison of his superstar teammates to the Corleone Family.  Penny Hardaway was Fredo (hilarious), Kobe was Sonny (temperamentally very true) and Dwyane Wade was Michael (maybe).  There's really only two left, Connie and the adopted Tom Hagen.  The way I see it, Steve Nash and LeBron is Tom Hagen who was one of the smarter and more appearance-savvy members of the Corleone Family... much like LeBron.  Nash as Connie totally makes sense considering Connie was the least valuable sibling in the Corleone family (BTW - Nash and Shaq combined for ONE playoff victory)... HOWEVER her actions did lead to Sonny’s death. And Nash did eliminate Kobe twice in the playoffs.

2 - Vince Carter to Orlando:  The Magic gave up virtually nothing and got a former All-Star to add depth to the defending Eastern Conference Champ AND/OR a quality back-up plan in case Hedo leaves.  A brilliant deal!  If Orlando gets 80% of Vince Carter from his All-Star days AND they re-sign Hedo you're looking at the favorites in the Eastern Conference.  They added scoring and athletic depth and another player that will force defenses to spread out and give Howard even more space to score from down low.  If Howard expands his low-post game (which he will), the look out, this might be the next NBA Champs.

If Hedo leaves, they are still one of the top contenders.  With Carter they'll get a player like Hedo who can clear out defenses and iso during crunch time.  But I think Hedo will stay in Orlando.  Now all of this depends on Carter's motivation... which should be high now that he's closer to a NBA title than ever before.

Here's my question... With Cleveland and Orlando making major moves, will Boston try to counter?

3 - Richard Jefferson to San Antonio:  Spurs get Richard Jefferson for left-over garbage (Bowen, Oberto and Thomas).  I guess Popovich is no longer complaining that the league needs a trade czar because this is almost as one-sided as the Gasol trade last year. In fact, one could argue that the Grizzlies got more because of Marc Gasol... a promising big.  The Spurs trade old size and defense and get a proven athletic scorer in Jefferson.  This trade gets the Spurs back in the second round of the playoffs but it doesn't counter the Lakers size.

Now if the Spurs can somehow find a way to sign Rasheed Wallace, then they become the odds on favorite in the West. 

4 - Jamal Crawford to Atlanta:  Wow another high-scoring player with ZERO basketball IQ!  Just when you though the Hawks were the dumbest team in the NBA, they just found a new level of supid-itude (a way of saying suckitude except with stupid).  I really can't find a proper word for how dumb this team is... but what do you expect from a team whose head coach's game face is the "who farted??" look!  Such a MEH trade!

5 - Amare to Golden State:  This isn't official until July 8th (or until EVERY Phoenix Suns season ticket holder skips town) but it looks like a done deal.  So in two seasons the Suns go from the SSOL, high-scoring, high-impact, fun to watch and with several All-Stars and a major contender to NOTHING.  What a shame!  Robert Sarver IS Donald T. Sterling 2.0 make no mistake about it.  

Initial trade rumors have the Warrior sending Curry over with Biedrins, but now I hear they're keeping Curry.  So why give up a relatively young annual All-Star with a very exciting game for absolutely nothing? 

Knock on the Clippers all you want but since they moved into Staples Center they've at least tried to assemble a team with talent.  Mis-guided efforts aside, every season Clippers fans at least have a small glint of hope when they look at their roster (Barron Davis, Marcus Camby, Eric Gordon, Blake Griffin... these are players with talent!).  But teams like Phoenix, Memphis, Sacramento and Charlotte don't even try... they're a lottery team BEFORE October!  Why plunk down hard earned $$ to even watch this crap.

Watching Phoenix dissolve into this garbage is sad.... Screw you Sarver!

LeBron Let's His Tee Shirt (Not His Game) Do the Talking

By Craig Kwasniewski

Imagine the outrage if Kobe did this.  Instead of having his game do the talking, LeBron decides again to let his shirt do all the talking instead (from TMZ.com)...

This is the second time this week that LeBron is wearing his insecurities on a tee shirt.  Is LeBron having a ego melt-down?  Did LeBron realize that Cleveland has no chance as long as Mike Brown is their coach?  Is he feeling inferior to the likes of Kobe, Duh-white Howard, Paul Pierce... all on more talented teams?

But more importantly, just imagine the outrage if Kobe Bryant was caught with the same shirt.  Boston Sports Guy Bill Simmon's head would explode at the sight of it... leading to another 10,000 word crapfest about how KG is a great guy and Kobe is the devil.  Kobe would be nailed to the cross in "I knew he was selfish!!!" articles all over the place.

But since we live in LeBron's world, just to make King James happy, let's to do exactly what he's asking us to do...

2009 NBA Most Valuable Player
2007 NBA Eastern Conference Champion with the Cavaliers
2006 & 2008 NBA All-Star Game MVP
5-time NBA All-Star (2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009)
5-time All-NBA (2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009)
1-time NBA All-Defensive (2009)

And ZERO rings!!!

Kobe Has a Lakers Flag on His Car?!?!

By Craig Kwasniewski

Awww man... just when I thought getting a fourth title put him clear of all the critics and haters, Kobe puts a one of those damn Lakers flags on his ride.  Dude, I'm a 10-year Lakers season ticket holder and I've NEVER put one of those silly things on my car!  All they do is add fuel to the fire for every smart-ass Lakers hater.  I'd just rather we stick to the normal NBA Championship things like greeting the team at the airport, a downtown parade and celebratory riots.   And who doesn't love the occasional run in with the riot squad?

Anyway, I'll give Kobe a pass... after all he did just win the 2009 Finals MVP Award, but the flag better be in the attic next week!

Next thing you'll tell me that the Lakers charter flight has a flag on it!

Awww man!!!

Five Adjustments the Magic Need to Win Game 3

By Craig Kwasniewski 

Leaving Staples Center last night Lakers fans all around me had the feeling that this was the last Lakers game they would see in the 2008-09 season. All that was left is the trophy, the parade and the ring ceremony. Put this series in the fridge as there's no way the Orlando Magic rally from those two games and makes this a series.... or do they??? 

Stan Van Gundy pulled out all the stops, made the right adjustments and came within a missed layup from putting a real scare in the Lakers. So who's to say he won't push the right buttons in Game 3 and direct the Magic toward their first W of the series? Well Stan, I'm gonna give you five tips/adjustments for the Magic to virtually guarantee a win tonight: 

1 - Continue to go big: The rule of thumb for most NBA teams today is to go smaller and smaller, stretch the defense, create seams and space the floor for the drive and kick game... that is unless you face the Lakers. LA is long, tall and long (did I mention that they're long?). Going small works if you have a quality point guard that can consistently break through the Lakers defense... and really even then teams like Utah, New Orleans and Houston had those guards and STILL they came up on the wrong end of the scoreboard. 

The Magic needs to go big! Play Gortat at the 4, move Lewis to the 3, Turkoglu to the 2 and rotate Alston, Nelson, Lee and Pietrus at the 1 depending on the situation. Gortat and Howard are too strong down low and their mere presence have held the Lakers low post game in check. SVG played Gortat more in Game 2 and the Lakers lost their low post rhythm. Gasol and Odom had trouble posting up Gortat and eventually gave up and stayed on the perimeter. Sure Orlando loses an outside shooter and clogs the lane a little on offense, but they'll still find points as long as Turk, 'Shard and Howard are on the floor. 

2 - Defend Kobe with Turkoglu (especially in the 4th quarter): Kobe's biggest weakness is long and strong defenders. James Posey last year and Tayshaun Prince in 2004 were both long and strong defenders that held Kobe in check, basically shutting him down in the Finals. Turkoglu's size will counter Kobe's very effective post game and he's quick enough to stick with Kobe in the perimeter. Plus Kobe's competitiveness will cause him to scrap the Lakers offensive game plan just to prove to Turkoglu he can score on him all day. This especially happened in 2004 and we all know what happened. The risk is that the Magic's best 4th quarter option will be run ragged chasing Kobe but at this point it's worth the risk. And TRUST ME Turkoglu will get enough under Kobe's skin. 

3 - Don't worry about NOT playing your PG's down the stretch: For some reason SVG caught flak for benching BOTH Alston and Nelson late in the 4th quarter in game 2. Why? They weren't doing a damn thing offensively and Turkoglu's very capable of bringing the ball up court like Scottie Pippen or Odom. Plus it's not like Fisher's an offensive threat to force Orlando to adjust defensively. In essence SVG went Phil Jackson by playing a small forward at the point and size at the two with Lee/Pietrus... and it almost worked.  At home it WILL work.

4 - Bench J.J. Redick: This is not brain surgery, you got past Boston and Cleveland with Redick stuck in DNP-CD mode so why mess with success? Sure he hit a HUGE three late to tie Game 2, but the Lakers also doubled off him most of the time he was on the floor. Remember those key steals late by LA... all by guys leaving Redick wide open. Duke guys should do what they're best at doing, getting all the calls in the college game and having overrated NBA careers. 

5 - What the hell am I doing?  I'm a 10-year season ticket holder and I want another damn NBA title. No more free advice for Stan Van Gundy!  

Game 2 really put a scare in all Lakers fans.  Game 1 made us all think this was an easy sweep and the parade is just a week away.  But give all the credit in the word to SVG, he made the right adjustments and all the Magic needed was just a tiny bit of production from the PG spot and this series is tied.  Playing at the O-Rena (we will not use pyramid schemes here) will definately help the Magic's slumping outside shooting.  But fare thee be warned, the Lakers are the best road team in the NBA and in each of the three previous series they were able to lock down mentally, play with extreme focus and resolve and get a clutch win.  Hopefully the mere sent of a NBA title will draw out the same efforts that we saw in Game 4 against Utah, Game 3 against Houston and Game 3 against Denver... we shall see.

Will the Lakers pattern of huge road wins continue for Game 3?

Finals Prediction

By Craig Kwasniewski

Just a very brief prediction on the NBA Finals... Lakers in 6.

But here are some other things I hope to see:

-The real hedgehog sitting courtside for the game. Just how cool would it be when the Lakers do that "Hollywood Nights" celeb montage and we see a split screen of Stan Van Gundy and Ron Jeremy!

-Kobe winning the first "Bill Russell Memorial" Finals MVP award and temporarily silencing his critics with an NBA title. I say temporarily because, let's be honest, media members outside of LA can't wait to start the LeBron era and will continue to belittle Kobe's efforts (6 NBA Finals appearance, 4 NBA Titles, 3 All Star MVP's, one league MVP.... etc, etc, etc). Yet somehow despite all those accolades, we kept hearing how LeBron has bypassed Kobe like somehow Kobe has turned into Washington Wizards Jordan. Kobe's gonna be around for awhile folks. He's too smart and too much in tune with his body to see the type of production drop-off as we've seen with Duncan and Garnett.

And by the way, can we stop naming NBA awards after dead Boston Celtics players? Not for nothing but I believe there are 29 other teams in the league.

-Phil Jackson passing angry Red Auerbach in NBA titles.  Red has said that Phil never built a team from the ground up, but Red never had to compete for NBA titles with 29 other teams.  Red never had to deal with the NBA draft.  Red never had to deal with salary caps, player entourages, media scrutiny.... basically the modern NBA.  Can a Red Auerbach deal with the likes of Dennis Rodman or the Kobe/Shaq feud and get a combined 6 NBA titles out of them?  Phil getting his 10th NBA title ends all of that discussion.

-The beginning of the Dwight Howard era!  I know he's been around for awhile but I'm giddy about him taking his game to the next level for the next 10 years.  People gasp as the prospect of LeBron's peak years, well Dwight hasn't even started his near peak years.  This guy will DOMINATE the east for a long time, and we'll start to see teams adjust their rosters to counter him much like the NBA did when Shaq was at his peak. 

Phoenix Mercury's Jersey Sponsorship... The Future of the NBA?

By Craig Kwasniewski

Trying to make ends meet in tough economic times the Phoenix Mercury of the WNBA is putting a sponsor on the front of their jerseys. My first reaction?  Well this is the WNBA, do I care?  No really, do I care????  Of course they need to make money because in this economy the NBA is no longer subsidizing the WNBA and this looks like a last ditch effort to make ends meet in the fledgling women's league.  I get it.

But then I thought about it a little more... every major professional sports league has jersey sponsors except for the big three and a half (hockey of course) in the US.  Times are tough and the league is facing the first salary cap reduction ever and many of the non-playoff teams saw huge drops in attendance.  Television money is maxed out so a good way t make extra revenue is to sell jersey sponsorship.  Major League Soccer was able to pull it off with very little backlash so why not the other sports?  The timing is perfect especially with all the new exposure in places like China and Europe.  The NBA sold literally millions of jerseys in China the past  3 seasons, just imagine the exposure if the jerseys are sponsored.

So really this Mercury thing looks more and more like a test run from the NBA front office.  Let's see what kind of exposure and revenue this generates.  Will the very few WNBA fans fork out the dough and pick up the new jerseys?  Will the Phoenix Mercury be able to survive this season with the extra money?  It's all a test.

The way I see it, this will be a MAJOR bargaining chip in the upcoming CBA.  Will the NBA do revenue sharing or is this a team by team basis?  If so, will this create financial imbalance the likes of the English Premier League?  How much will this be shared with the players?  Will they continue to raise the salary cap?  And most importantly, how will fans react when they see traditional jerseys like the Celtics, Bulls, Knicks and Lakers with say AT&T slapped on the front instead of the team name? 

It works with european soccer leagues but will it sell here with fickle and tradition-happy fans?  Below is Josh Childress's Olympiacos jersey... the future of the NBA?  What do you think?

Does Anyone Really Think Cleveland Will Lose Game 5?

By Craig Kwasniewski

Game 5, LeBron's last chance to save his MVP season... will he do it?  Will Cleveland save their season?  Will Mike Brown over annunciate every word during timeouts and show us that he's worth of coach of the year?  Will LeBron prove what everyone at ESPN is praying for... that he's better than Kobe?  Man, the drama is really intense!

Ummmm, not really. 

Cleveland wins this game easily.  So here's a quick message to all media members and fans begging to anoint LeBron "the greatest ever... ever... ever... (echo.... echo... echo)"... please spare us the 10,000 word love poems.  The Cavs are the top seeded team in the NBA, playing at home, with the 2008-09 NBA coach of the year and the 2008-09 MVP... they're supposed to win! 

Save all the "gritty effort, heart of a champion, Jordan-esque" and any other cliches you can think of... they're supposed to win!

The Cavs start two All-Stars and allegedly the greatest player in the next 25 years.... they're supposed to win!

Nike and especially ABC/ESPN have a lot writing on Cleveland advancing to the NBA Finals... they're supposed to win! 

So spare us all!!!!  Because Cleveland easily wins Game 5!

Derek Fisher's Obituary and Some Other Thoughts from G2

By Craig Kwasniewski

Put him to sleep, wish him to the cornfield, call in Dr. Kevorkian, have him kiss someone with Swine Flu, push him into traffic, spike his water with female hormones so he can fail a drug test... Whatever keeps Derek Fisher from playing for the Lakers do it now! How many more games will Fisher cost the Lakers before Phil Jackson wakes up from reading Jeanie Buss's tweets and benches his ass? Three points, two turnovers, one of nine from the field and ZERO defense, Fisher needs to meet the bench NOW!

Here are a few other thoughts from the Lakers 106-103 loss to Denver my seat in section 316:

Reverse of Game 1:  The Lakers thoroughly dominated Denver for the first 22 minutes.  The Nuggets looked lost and disinterested... basically the knuckle headed Denver Nuggets that most people expected showed up at the start of this game.  Yet somehow the Lakers didn't take hold of the game and the Nuggets (behind a very impressive effort from Carmelo Anthony) got back in it, eventually stealing game 2.

Props to Phil Jackson:  For benching BOTH Bynum and especially Vujacic.  Elden Campbell’s ghost took over Bynum’s body at halftime.  Inexplicably Bynum had zero energy early in the 3rd quarter and PJ just didn't have the patience to wait for Bynum shit. Vujacic shot selection was absolute gash, earning dirty looks from everyone in Staples Center not wearing powder blue.  He needs to be destroyed like a horse with a broken leg.

The WORST thing to happen in a game:  Chauncey Billups and Carmelo Anthony had balanced scoring in game 2.  The Lakers are better off if one or the other explodes, but if both get 22-30 each then the Lakers are in serious trouble.  It gives the Nuggets two go to guys down the stretch compared to the Lakers one with Kobe.  And tonight, Chauncey's veteran moxie took over as he drew several key fouls.

The Lakers front line needs to not be intimidated by Denver’s shorter front line.  Two games into the series and the Odom, Bynum & Gasol triumvirate have 62 points compared to 61 from Martin, Nene & Anderson.  The Lakers “advantage” is supposed to be their front line yet they lead 62-61 after two HOME games…. This is a VERY disturbing stat from LA's perspective. 

Melo has REALLY impressed me.  Late in the 2^nd quarter, the Lakers were on the brink of blowing the game wide open… well Melo wouldn’t have it and he alone carried the Nuggets on his shoulder and kept the game close…. aided by Vujacic’s TERRIBLE shot selection.

Outlook for Game 3:  The Lakers need to get points from everyone not named Kobe on the road to get back into this series… and I’m not sure how they’ll do it at Denver.  Mix in that Kobe’s running out of gas, how are they going to win at altitude?  And based on the first two games, I'm not sure they can expect their bigs to rally.  So where will Kobe get the scoring help?  Things look really good for Denver!

ESPN Orders Staff to Forget About the Lakers Sweeping the Cavs

By Craig Kwasniewski

I just intercepted a very interesting memo issued my ESPN to all their writers, bloggers and blowhards...

To: ESPN Staff

Subject: LeBron James

Whatever you do, do not mention that the Lakers swept the Cleveland Cavaliers this year. Any member of the ESPN family that mentions this will be punished accordingly.

Signed,

ESPN Management

Lakers Steal Game One from Denver

By Craig Kwasniewski  

Whew! As series go, one chapter down and this feels like the makings of an epic series. The Lakers overcame their now typical lackluster start and some very questionable officiating to pull out a 105-103 victory over a very confident Denver Nuggets team in Los Angeles. Here are a few thoughts from my seat high up in Section 316 of Le Stade de Staples:  

Carmelo Anthony wanted to send a clear message... LeBron, Dwight Howard and Kobe aren't the only superstars left in the playoffs. Remember last year when Melo called out the Nuggets for quitting? That player is long gone... Melo was straight up ballin' on BOTH ends of the floor. He held his own down the stretch, hitting clutch hoops and holding his own defensively.

Kobe v. Melo... The never told story. These two superstars really haven't had the famous one-on-one battles like Wade-LeBron or Kobe-Wade. Both guys went at it at both ends of the floor tonight combining for 79 and despite the high scoring, playing impressive defense down the stretch. Melo was able to keep Kobe on the outside forcing him into difficult and deep fadeaways late in the game (see the photo below). Kobe was only able to close it out on the freethrow line after an ill-advised reach in foul by K-Mart... Melo really didn't need help on the play. Anyway, rivalries and made in the playoffs and hopefully this series brings us more of Kobe vs. Melo. 

The "only so many points to go around" theory applies to Melo and Chauncey. Unless you're completely giving up on your head coach like New Orleans, the scoring ceiling the playoffs is usually around 110 points.  So people can always argue "well... just wait until (these several guys) get hot" but no matter what, they still won't exceed 110 points... Simply there's only so many shots to go around. Anyway, this is why we'll never see a game where both Chauncey and Melo get 30 a night. It's either one or the other. Tonight Melo dominated on offense but Chauncey was held in check... Well except for those sick threes late in the game.  Denver seems more dangerous when Chauncey is hot, I think the Lakers are willing to accept the occasional Melo scoring outburst as long as it's not late in the game.

The Lakers stole this one. Denver dominted the first quarter right from the tip, taking advantage of the Lakers now typical slow start. (BTW - these slow starts are VERY disturbing!  How hard is it to get motivated for the playoffs? CLEARLY the Lakers started off like this game's on a Sunday in November, this whole "let the game come to you" crap is getting old.  It wouldn't hurt to put a mentally weak team down in the early stages instead waiting 12 minutes to finally show up.)

But I digress...

Denver blew their chances at blowing this game wide open by missing early freethrows and not riding Melo's hot hand for the rest of the first half.  Clearly the Ariza/Walton tandem were being dominated by Melo, so why not play him most of the first half and grab a big halftime lead? (BTW - Luke Walton on Carmelo Anthony?  REALLY???? Did Phil bet on Denver?) Anyway, George Karl needed to get a feel for the game and adjust his rotations accordingly. 

The Lakers bench circa November finally showed up in the second quarter and rallied the Lakers back into the game.  Early in the season, the Lakers earned the reputation of having one of the deeper teams in the NBA from the stellar and enegertic efforts of their bench in the 2nd and late 3rd quarters.  Several times this year the Lakers starting 5 didn't open with the right energy and they relied on the bench to change the pace of the game, which happened again tonight.

The starting five showed up in the second half and the Laker rode a heroic effort by Kobe to steal the W.

Moving on to Game 2.  A big if still falls on the Lakers.  If the Lakers starters open with the same effort they did against Houston in game 7, they win easily on Thurdsay.  The Nuggets feasted on weak opponents this postseason and have yet to ever show resilience when trailing.  They know they lost a great chance at stealing game 1 and I'm curious how they bounce back.  One thing I do know is that you won't get a game where Bynum, Gasol and Odom all don't show up offensively.  I see a better effort from Gasol in game 2.

But if the Lakers follow their 2009 postseason pattern, they'll take Denver lightly and lose Game 2.  And like everyone else familiar with these Lakers anything is possible...



Melo got the best of Kobe on this one.  He was right in his face and forces Kobe to come up short.

Western Conference Finals Prediction

By Craig Kwasniewski

Lakers vs. Nuggets... which wins out, the streaking team or the team with the better match-ups? The Nuggets come in as the hottest team in the playoffs, running through the first two rounds and with a growing bandwagon loaded with all the "experts" labeling them the dark horse team du jour. The Lakers roll in, bruised and battered after a very unexpected 7-game series against the thoroughly undermanned yet prideful Houston Rockets. They no longer look like a lock for the NBA Finals.

Here's a brief rundown on the series...

It's 1992 all over again: This series reminds me of the 1992 Eastern Conference Finals between Cleveland and Chicago. The Bulls just finished a very grueling 7-game series against the the New York Knicks. Before the series, people expected the Bulls to run through New York in 5 or 6 games, but they were caught off guard and somewhat intimidated  by the Knicks physical presence (Xavier McDaniel alone had Pippen in a fetal position the entire series).  Eventually Jordan pulled Chicago through in Game 7, matching the Knicks effort on both ends of the floor.  Phil Jackson even used video of Jordan blocking X-Man from behind as motivation for the Lakers in a film session earlier this week.

Anyway, the Bulls went from playing a slug-it-out possession-by-possession series into a more offensive-oriented game against Cleveland and easily dispatched them in 6.  This series plays out the exact same way.  Denver just doesn't have the right mind-set to play the brute-physical style of the Rockets.  Don't get me wrong, they'll bring it physically, but not with the same kind of defensive control like the 1992 Knicks or 2009 Rockets. 

Lakers weakness:  Quite simply, the Lakers can't defend small and quick guards and they're weak on the defensive glass.  Chauncey Billups is a lot bigger than Aaron Brooks and is more of a pull-up jump shooter than the driving/slashing Billups that killed the Lakers back in 2004.  However, the Nuggets will get theirs on the offensive glass with K-Mart and Nene.

The other VERY glaring weakness is the Lakers effort... which is VERY disturbing that the Lakers have saved their playoff efforts until they have to. 

Nuggets weakness:  Shhhhh... nobody realizes this but the Nuggets front line is kinda small.  Nene is 6-11, Anderson is 6-10 and K-Mart is 6-9 (but really he's 6-7)... they got away with being small against an even smaller New Orleans squad that game up on the coach and very slow Dallas team, but the Lakers throw out Pau Gasol at 7-0, Andrew Bynum at 7-0 and Lamar Odom at 6-11.  They'll have to be even quicker against LA to have a chance. 

Their other weakness that we have yet to see in the playoff is that they're loaded with knuckleheads from the head coach on down to the team trainer.  Winning cures everything and beating far inferior opponents makes it seam as though the Nuggets are cured of all the past indiscretions.  Let's see how they react when they're down a game or two in the series.

Coaching match-up:  Phil Jackson is 11-1 in the Conference Finals with an 11 series winning streak.  George Karl has lost in the first round of the postseason 10 out of 18 postseason appearances.  One thing the Rockets series taught me is that the 63-year old version of Phil Jackson is not the same version as the three peat era.  Clearly he's lost his fastball but he's still one of the top 5 coaches in the NBA.  With Karl, I almost feel like he's winning with Denver solely because of Chaucey Billups and his job is to just get out of the way.  Has there even been a more miss-match of coaches in the playoffs?  (Well at least until Jackson takes on Mike Brown.) 

The Big Question:  Really this series comes down to Denver's ability to play defense.  Do they have the right mentality to defend Kobe like the Rockets and Celtics?  *NO*  And this is really what this series comes down to... defending the opponents best player.  When motivated, the Lakers have shown the ability to contain players like Carmelo Anthony and the slower Chauncey Billups but Denver doesn't have the roster to contain Kobe.  Sure they can try to intimidate Gasol and Odom out of the series and they will probably succeed in a few games, but over a seven game series you're asking a high-octane offense-first team to suddenly slow down and contain a front line of Pau Gasol, Andrew Bynum and Lamar Odom with Kobe Bryant pulling the strings... not an easy thing to do...

The Prediction:  The big if comes down to the Lakers effort.  IF they play like they're supposed to (Games 3, 5 and 7 against Houston), the Lakers win this series in 5.  But as we've seen, the Lakers have taken the occasional playoff game off... which Lakers squad shows up determines this series... either way, I'm sticking with the Lakers in 5.

A Very Quick Prediction on the HOU-LA Series

By Craig Kwasniewski

Just 30 minutes left before I drive on out to Staples Center so let me get a very brief prediction on the Lakers-Rockets series:

Lakers win in 6... but it won't be easy... here's why:

-The Rockets defense will focus on shutting down Kobe with mixed coverage from Artest, Battier and probably a rotating guard giving D-Fish wide open jumpers... but since he officially expired on 04/01/09 and that Farmar's confidence is at UCLA football level... the Rockets will get away with rotating away from the Lakers 1-spot.

-Bynum/Gasol versus Yao/Scola in the front court is a wash.  Scola's activity will confound the Lakers, who were exposed by Utah as weak on the defensive boards but Bynum's quickness will affect Yao in the post.  Yao ain't facing the sluggish Blazers tandem of Oden-Pryzbilla this round.

-The Lakers will struggle early in the series.  The Lakers will come off very rusty in Game 1but they'll eek out a W tonight.  But they'll come in overconfident and lose Game 2 followed by a million "the playoff don;t start until the home team loses" cliches.

-The Rockets have the depth and hustle necessary to give the Lakers trouble but they don't have the offensive firepower.  The only way they stand a chance is by slowing down the pace and making it a Jeff Van Gundy-type of series with the final scores in the 80's.

-This whole series comes down to one player:

LAMAR ODOM

The Rockets can defend Kobe with a Artest/Battie platoon but they don't have a player capaable of defending BOTH Kobe and LO.  If Odom plays like he did against Utah, I can't see the Rockets stopping him.  He's too long, agile, quick and smart enough for the Rockets to defend without letting Kobe get off.

A Look Back at the Playoff Preseason (First Round) - Eastern Conference

By Craig Kwasniewski 

Three weekends later and the first round is finally over.... finally! 

Remember the times when the first round was 5 games and was over by April 25th? Remember when the second round started as soon as the opponents were set?  Remember the excitement of 2 or 3 games a day no matter what with practically every game having some sort of meaning? Take away the ultra competitive Bulls - Celtics series and we were left with a bunch of yawners in the first round. I know the NBA will never reduce playoff games, but the first round looks more like a playoff preseason, even finishing behind the NHL in excitement. And the NBA should NEVER take a back seat to playoff hockey!!! 

Anyway, let's take a quick look back at all eight series in the newly christened Playoff Preseason: 

Cleveland beats Detroit 4-0: YAWN! (And that was from Piston fans who didn't sell their seats to Cavs fans.) If we're claiming the Bulls-Celtics series one of the greatest ever... ever...ever (echo-echo-echo) and making lists proclaiming it as such then let's to a list of the worst ever call this what it was: an abortion! Basically this was the worst playoff series since the Celtics-Pacers in 2004.  

The Pistons gave up on the season way back in November when Joe Dumars hired Michael "I'm afraid to stand up to my veterans" Curry and shipped their leader, their heart and their soul in Chauncey Billups to Denver for Allen Iverson's expiring contract. You gotta hand it to Joe Dumars, he not only killed one of the most successful teams in professional sports but he also ripped the heart out of Iverson and offered it to Kali Ma like that dude in Temple of Doom. The end result is collision of a team on a mission against a team mailing it in. I'm guessing Stern didn't consider this when expanding the Playoff Preseason to 7 games.  

Orlando beats Philadelphia 4-2: If these teams actually had fans this might have been a little more exciting. Instead the only entertainment factor was watching the TNT crew rip the Magic apart for their offense, their coach, their star players, their role players, their fans, their city... everything. When did the Orlando Magic become the Terrell Owens of the NBA? I get that their offense is bland and uninspiring and that Dwight Howard is not yet at the level of playoff superhero but take it easy fellas. The Magic CLEARLY aren't in the same category of the Lakers, Cavs or Celtics but just a level below with Denver (thanks to their GM Joe Dumars).  I feel they're headed in the right direction. I just think Orlando like NOLA last year benefited playing the role of upstart team and stole a few W's here and there (hello Lakers!). We'll see what happens next year when they play all season with a HUGE target on their back. 

Atlanta beats Miami 4-3: Again since we're now all about absolutes, is this the worst 7-game series ever? The closest game was 10 points! Even worse, those loud 4-letter bombs you hear are coming from the ABC and TNT offices after missing out on the ratings winfall of LeBron vs. Wade. How did David Stern let this pass? The 2006 Stern would give Wade 30 to 40 freethows, the 2006 Stern would have fouled out Mike Bibby AND Joe Johnson, the 2006 Stern would have had Joe Crawford give the Hawks three tech's... oh he did?... well it least he got that right.  The 2006 Stern would have found a way to make LeBron vs. Wade happen.    

Anyway, the only other thing I got from this series is Mike Woodson's "who just farted?" face. Call me crazy but if your coach looks confused, panicked and annoyed AT THE SAME TIME... well I'm not feeling too confident unless I have a ghost writer coach like Tom Thibodeau.

Boston beats Chicago 4-3:  The greatest series ever!  The greatest clutch-ness ever!  The greatest fans ever!  The greatest coaching ever!  (SCREEECH-CRASH!!!)

Okay stop right there!  This definitely was one of the most competitive series ever.  Five of the seven games went down to the last possession with each team showing extreme cantaloupe-sized balls.  But let's take a pause before rating this as the greatest ever.  As the TNT crew said, this series was close because of parity.  If Boston had KG this goes maybe 5 and we're all talking about how boring the 2009 Playoff Preseason was.   If Chicago had a head coach they win in 5 (seriously, how many times will Ray Allen be single-guarded with the C's down three?  And how many games did Del Negro lose because he ran out of TO's?).  If Derrick Rose actually knew how to play defense the Bulls win in 6.  If Paul Pierce wasn't so run down from carrying the Celtics to 60 wins, the Celtics win in 5.  But none of that happened and instead we witnessed easily the most competitive in the Playoff Preseason since the league expanded to 7 games.  But to call it the best playoff series ever is absolutely insane. 

The best ever are filled with drama, with stars, with destiny and a feeling of importance.  Take the 1981 Eastern Conference Finals between Celtics-76ers, you have the drama (five games decided by 2 or less), the stars (Dr. J near the end of his prime and Bird coming into his own) and you have the importance (playing for a Finals appearance).  Remember last year's Suns-Spurs Game 1?  At the time people were calling it the greatest playoff game ever, basically erasing 60 plus years of NBA history along the way.  But in the end the series fizzled in 5 with neither team having any relevance in the NBA title hunt last year.  Now Game 1 is just a 30 second commercial and nothing else. 

Let's see how Boston does for the rest of the playoffs before we rank this series in history.  If they somehow find a way to compete with Cleveland in the Eastern Conference Finals then we're talking a heroic effort along the likes of the 1987 Celtics, who fought tooth, nail and broken ankles through to the NBA Finals.  BTW - one of my favorite teams in NBA history and a true lesson on how to properly defend a title (2006 Miami Heat I'm talking to you!).  However, if they get bounced easily by Orlando, then the Bull-Celtics series will be easily replaced by whatever close 7-game series happens next year.  

One final note about this series:  Rondo was great, but not THAT great.  What I'm sayin' is that he's put together some very impressive numbers against ZERO defense.  The Bulls focused on shutting down Paul Pierce and sagged far away from Rondo, giving him a slew of WIDE OPEN jumpers.  Also, early in the series Derrick Rose played matador defense and leaked out for fastbreak opportunities.  We heard Doc Rivers pointing that out during a timeout and Rondo took advantage to the tune of a near triple-double average.  Before we start comparing Rondo to Isiah Thomas, Magic Johnson or even Chris Paul let's see what he does with defenses actually focused on him.  But WIDE OPEN is still WIDE OPEN and Rondo made the Bulls pay for not defending him one iota... so I guess he's got that going for him. 

One more final note:  Will Boston drop a banner and throw a parade for eliminating a 7-seed at home?

Where are the CP3 / NOLA Fans Now?

By Craig Kwasniewski

Where oh where are all the CP3 fans? Where are the ones who felt "slighted" when Kobe won the 07-08 MVP award? Where are the "experts" who predicted NOLA will win the Western Conference... ever? Where are the media people who: a) gave Byron Scott the 07-08 Coach of the Year award, b) were heaping praise on the Hornets GM for assembling that "talent" and c) were giving Chris Paul hourly courtesy reach-arounds and telling the world that he's the best player in the NBA.

WHERE... ARE... YOU???

The greatest thing about sports is the final score. You can write, talk or text your arguments to your hearts delight but at the end it all comes down to... scoreboard.

121 to 63

 

Monday Morning Point Guard

By Craig Kwasniewski 

March Madness eat your heart out! One weekend down and there were several upsets, a few stinkers and a couple expected results. As much as I love the whole one and done March Madness thing, you don't get the physical play, the adjustments and strategy that a 7-game series offers. Here are a few thoughts with one game down in each series: 

Boston vs. Chicago - Is there room on the Derrick Rose bandwagon? The Bulls were the one team I regret not seeing in person this year. Anyone with an eye for hoops can appreciate the full range this rookie brings to the Bulls but what I didn't notice until Saturday is Rose's quick and explosive LAST step. Most players have that quick first step to blow by defenders but Rose explodes right at the rim at his last step. Also, his extremely calm nature works well with the youthful Bulls. Game 1 against the defending champs and he has the heart rate of a librarian and it's contagious as the Bulls weren't phased at all. I still think Boston wins, but the Bulls should make Rose the GM, coach and owner and build around him for the next 12 years. 

Cleveland vs. Detroit - Are we done yet? Are we done yet? Are we done yet? SWEEP! 

San Antonio vs. Dallas - One quarter in, Duncan had springy legs and looked very 2007, I was on the brink of writing a "Mavs should have kept Maquis Daniels instead of Josh Howard" piece and Nowitzki was in foul trouble... basically it didn't look good for Dallas. I left home, went out thinking the Spurs would win easily and I caught the last few seconds at a bar as Dallas... PULLED AWAY FOR A W??? What the hell happened? Suddenly Dallas looks like a very legit Western Conference finalist and San Antonio looks old.    

Portland vs. Houston - This really looks like a match-up problem for Portland more than anything else. Maybe their inexperience cost them a W as they didn't have that fifth gear or maybe they're just happy to be there.  All I know is Yao played the best playoff game of his life and showed EVERYONE that the problem was always T-MAC. 

Los Angeles vs. Utah - No Okur, no chance for Utah... it's just that simple. But the real story is the referees killing the entire second half of the game. It's no surprise that Joey Crawford was the lead ref in the worst called game of the weekend. Does the NBA pay him by the fouls? Does he really think the fans pay to see him ref? Is he out to single-handedly ruin professional hoops?  There were SIXTEEN fouls in the 3rd quarter alone and a free-flowing game became a possession-by-possession freethrow festival. Terrible! 

Orlando vs. Philadelphia - I've said this all year, Orlando doesn't have the go to guy necessary to make a deep run in the playoffs. C-Webb pretty much blew a gasket ripping on the Magic not riding Dwight Howard all game. But does Superman really want to be "that guy" with the Magic or is he content with monster numbers, monster dunks and showmanship? NBA Champions all have the definitive alpha dog and an understood chain of command. The Celtics heart lies with KG but crunchtime went Pierce first and Sugar Ray second. The early 00's Lakers had Shaq for 3 1/2 quarters with Kobe as the closer... what about Orlando? 

Atlanta vs. Miami - The Hawks put together a Special Edition Double-DVD set of highlights on the Heat on Sunday. Instead of 2006 Kobe and the Lakers with their near upset of the #2 seeded Phoenix Suns, the Heat resembled the 2007 edition and the very one-sided 4-1 loss to Phoenix. But we'll see what kind of road playoff team Atlanta is in games 3 & 4. 

Denver vs. New Orleans - Denver put together a sick 21-0 run late in the 3rd early in the 4th to put away what was a close and very physical game. Chauncey Billups went retro looking like a 2005 version going 8 of 9 from three on his way to 36 points. NOLA basically gave up at the end of the 3rd quarter so this blowout doesn't really mean the Nuggets will sweep. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if NOLA steals game 2. This really feels like a very bitter and very physical seven game series.